TLDR
- Rosenblatt initiated coverage of SanDisk with a Buy rating and a $2,400 price target
- Analyst Kevin Cassidy sees ~36% upside from SNDK’s closing price of $1,766.64
- Cassidy argues AI is shifting NAND flash from a commodity to a critical part of AI infrastructure
- SanDisk has signed New Business Model agreements with eight major NAND customers, potentially covering 65% of FY28 production
- Wall Street consensus is Strong Buy, with an average price target of $2,195.29
Rosenblatt initiated coverage of SanDisk (SNDK) with a Buy rating on Tuesday, setting a $2,400 price target. That implies around 36% upside from SNDK’s September 22 closing price of $1,766.64.
Analyst Kevin Cassidy is the one making the call. He ranks No. 58 out of 12,521 analysts tracked by TipRanks, with a 59% success rate and an average return of 39% per rating over a one-year period.
The core of Cassidy’s thesis is straightforward: AI is changing what NAND flash memory is used for. He argues it is moving from a commodity storage product to something more central to AI computing systems.
Cassidy points to expanding model sizes and data-heavy inference workloads as the key drivers. These trends, he says, push demand toward higher density, better performance, and greater supply certainty rather than just the lowest price.
That shift, if it plays out, would be a meaningful change from how NAND has traditionally been sold. Historically, most demand has come from consumer devices, PCs, and smartphones.
SanDisk’s Technology Roadmap
Cassidy sees SanDisk as well-positioned to benefit. The company has developed its NAND technology alongside manufacturing partner Kioxia for roughly 25 years.
He specifically highlights SanDisk’s BiCS8 and BiCS10 platforms. These improve storage density while using fewer 3D layers than some competing products, which Cassidy says should help maintain a cost and performance edge in enterprise AI storage.
Management’s own financial framework for FY28 through FY30 targets mid-to-high-teens revenue growth, around 80% non-GAAP gross margins, and a 50% adjusted free-cash-flow margin. Cassidy estimates FY30 non-GAAP earnings of roughly $300 per share.
His $2,400 price target is set at 10 times his FY28 earnings estimate. He describes that multiple as conservative, noting it reflects execution risk and the possibility that NAND pricing returns to cyclical, commodity-like patterns.
Customer Agreements Add Demand Visibility
One element Cassidy is particularly focused on is SanDisk’s New Business Model agreements. The company has signed deals with eight of the largest NAND buyers in the world.
Cassidy estimates these agreements could cover around 65% of FY28 production. He believes they should give SanDisk better demand visibility and help reduce the kind of volatility that has historically made the NAND market difficult to forecast.
That is a meaningful structural change, if the agreements hold. NAND has long been one of the more cyclical parts of the semiconductor sector.
SNDK stock was trending higher in Tuesday’s pre-market session following the initiation.
The broader Wall Street view is also constructive. SNDK carries a Strong Buy consensus rating on TipRanks, based on 15 Buy ratings and two Holds.
The average analyst price target sits at $2,195.29, pointing to around 24% upside from current levels.
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