TLDR
- Michael Burry says AI infrastructure spending by major tech firms could lead to future write-downs.
- He estimates Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle have about $3 trillion tied to AI infrastructure commitments.
- Net capital investment by S&P 500 companies hit 2.07% of GDP, the highest level in nearly four decades outside the dot-com era.
- Burry compares the AI buildout to the late 1990s telecom expansion that later saw excess capacity.
- Elon Musk says xAI plans to more than double its Nvidia chip count by year end.
Michael Burry has raised concerns about how much money large technology companies are putting into artificial intelligence infrastructure. His warning came through a post on Substack.
MICHAEL BURRY SAID:
“I have little doubt the next few quarters will set still higher and higher net investment/GDP marks, possibly even eclipsing that aftermath of the 2000 tech stock peak”
“When the write-offs come, perhaps in 2028 or 2029, these commitments discussed in Part… pic.twitter.com/hSkLj67zgu
— Evan (@StockMKTNewz) September 25, 2026
Burry pointed to a specific number to make his case. Net capital investment by S&P 500 companies reached 2.07% of GDP as of June 30.
He said that level has only been higher once in the past 38 years. That was during the period right after the Nasdaq peaked in March 2000.
According to Burry, five companies carry most of the exposure. These are Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta Platforms and Oracle.
He estimates these firms have roughly $3 trillion in commitments tied to AI infrastructure. That includes leases, construction projects and purchase obligations.
Comparison to the Dot-Com Era
Burry drew a direct comparison between today’s AI spending and the telecom buildout of the late 1990s. During that period, companies invested heavily in network infrastructure.
Michael Burry disclosed today that he added to his short positions in Micron $MU, Nebius $NBIS, and Palantir $PLTR pic.twitter.com/bXnWMcizJG
— Evan (@StockMKTNewz) September 22, 2026
That spending was later followed by excess capacity. Companies saw weaker returns and had to write down large amounts of depreciated assets.
Burry believes a similar pattern could play out with AI. He expects write-downs could start appearing around 2028 or 2029 if AI capacity grows faster than actual demand.
He also raised questions about Oracle specifically. Burry cited how the company treats customer prepayments and pointed to financing concerns tied to its data center projects.
Other Developments in AI Spending
Elon Musk also made news related to AI infrastructure this week. He said xAI’s Colossus 2 computing cluster could more than double its Nvidia chip count by the end of the year.
The system currently runs on 110,000 GB200 chips and 440,000 GB300 chips. Another 220,000 GB300 chips are expected to arrive next week, with 220,000 more coming in November.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Asset Management has taken a different approach to the AI spending story. The firm said it is underweight the largest AI borrowers.
Lindsay Rosner, who leads multi-sector fixed income investing at the firm, said this is due to expectations of more hyperscaler debt issuance. Amazon, Meta Platforms and Alphabet have been among the largest issuers of high grade corporate bonds this year.
These companies have used bond sales to help fund their AI infrastructure buildouts. Burry’s warning centers on how this spending could play out over the next few years.
The actual impact will depend on how AI demand grows compared to the new capacity being built. For now, Burry’s comments add a note of caution to the ongoing AI investment story among the largest technology companies.
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