TLDR
- Micron surged over 15% on June 24 after blowout Q3 results, hitting a record high of $1,255, then pulled back 6.7% on Friday
- Mizuho raised its price target to $1,375 and kept an outperform rating, with multiple other analysts also lifting targets
- Apple reportedly seeking U.S. approval to source DRAM from Chinese chipmaker CXMT — Mizuho says this doesn’t change Micron’s supply picture
- South Korea announced a multi-decade memory fab expansion; Mizuho calls it political signalling with no locked-in capital commitments
- Autumn HBM contract pricing negotiations flagged as the key catalyst, with prices potentially reaching 2.5x 2026 levels for 2027
Micron Technology (MU) surged more than 15% on June 24 after reporting blowout Q3 results, hitting a record high of $1,255. The stock then gave back some of those gains, closing down 6.7% on Friday on volume of 86.4 million — nearly double its three-month average.
Q3 EPS came in at $25.11, beating the consensus estimate of $20.98 by $4.13. Revenue hit $41.46 billion against analyst expectations of $35.91 billion. That’s a 345.8% increase compared to the same quarter last year.
Micron also set Q4 2026 guidance at $30.00–$32.00 EPS, above what Wall Street had expected.
Despite the pullback, Mizuho TMT specialist Jordan Klein is urging investors to hold steady. Mizuho raised its price target from $1,150 to $1,375, implying around 13% upside from the prior close.
Several other firms followed with upgrades. Susquehanna lifted its target to $2,000, Needham raised to $1,650, Deutsche Bank moved to $1,550, Wedbush went to $1,400, and Wolfe set a target of $1,500. Out of 39 analysts covering the stock, 31 have a Buy rating and five have a Strong Buy.
Klein flagged two headlines that bears are leaning on this week. The first is a report that Apple is seeking U.S. government approval to source DRAM from Chinese chipmaker CXMT, which sits on the Commerce Department’s Entity List.
Klein’s take: this is a symptom of industry-wide scarcity, not a Micron-specific problem. Micron has already shifted its production mix toward hyperscaler HBM and LPDDR DRAM deals, as well as automotive and industrial customers. Any Apple fallout would land harder on Samsung and SK Hynix.
Whether Washington even grants the licence is unclear. Klein also notes China’s own domestic demand for CXMT output is enormous, and Beijing may not want to redirect that supply to a foreign buyer.
Korean Fab Expansion: More Noise Than Signal
The second bear catalyst is a formal announcement from SK Hynix, Samsung, and the South Korean government of a multi-decade memory fab expansion covering roughly four new facilities. Klein calls it largely political, noting there are no locked-in capital commitments expected this year or next. Micron itself already has four new fabs in its own pipeline.
Apple CEO Tim Cook described the memory shortage to the Wall Street Journal as a “once in a century flood,” saying he had never seen anything like it in 40 years. Elon Musk reposted the remarks on X, calling the capacity gap relative to demand “insane.”
Autumn Contract Talks Are the Catalyst to Watch
A Digitimes report published Monday projects memory makers could raise HBM prices — including HBM4 — to as much as 2.5 times 2026 levels in the next annual supply negotiations for 2027.
Those negotiations happen every autumn. Klein says any headlines in September or October signalling strong HBM contract pricing could push Street EPS estimates for 2027 materially higher.
Micron’s next earnings release is scheduled for September 29, 2026 — landing right as those HBM contract talks are expected to heat up.
Consensus EPS for fiscal Q4 2026 sits at $25.72 on revenue of approximately $43.58 billion. All 25 analyst revisions over the past 90 days have been upward.
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