TLDR
- Micron reports fiscal Q4 earnings on Wednesday, September 30, with the stock at $1,082.28.
- JPMorgan reiterated an Overweight rating and a $1,540 price target ahead of the report.
- Analysts expect revenue of $51.4 billion and EPS of $31.73, both above the company’s own guidance range.
- Options traders are pricing in a possible move of roughly 8% in either direction after results.
- Micron’s HBM3E and HBM4 memory capacity is already sold out through 2027.
Micron shares sit at $1,082.28 heading into Wednesday’s earnings report, giving the stock a market cap near $1.22 trillion. That price tag comes after a 589% gain over the past year, one of the biggest runs of any large-cap stock in that stretch.
JPMorgan reiterated its Overweight rating on Wednesday morning and kept a $1,540 price target. The firm believes Micron is still undervalued even after the massive rally.
Analysts polled by the Street expect revenue of $51.4 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter. That compares with just $11.32 billion a year ago, a jump of about 351%.
Adjusted earnings per share are forecast at $31.73, versus $3.03 in the same quarter last year. Gross margin is expected to land around 86.2%.
JPMorgan said pricing momentum stayed strong through the quarter. Management had previously flagged a slowdown in the pace of price increases, but the firm views that as a customer relationship strategy rather than a sign of softening demand.
What Analysts Are Watching Beyond the Headline Numbers
JPMorgan expects Micron to raise its guidance for the November quarter. That call is based on rising demand signals from customers and management’s own view that 2027 will be tighter than 2026 for memory supply.
The firm also pointed to continued momentum in HBM4, Micron’s high-bandwidth memory used in AI systems. Micron has already shipped more than $1 billion worth of HBM4 as of the May quarter.
Forward bit production coverage under supply agreements now sits near 35%. That’s up from about 20% of DRAM volumes and 33% of NAND volumes disclosed last quarter.
Other Wall Street firms are largely in agreement. UBS holds a Buy rating with a $1,625 target, citing strong DRAM and server demand. Wells Fargo trimmed its target to $1,400 from $1,525 but kept an Overweight rating and raised its 2027 and 2028 estimates.
Stifel has a $1,500 target and expects both results and guidance to beat consensus, though it flagged some margin moderation tied to supply constraints. TD Cowen kept its $1,600 target, pointing to favorable demand even as margins expand more slowly than before.
History Suggests a Big Swing Either Way
Options markets are pricing in a move of about 8.6% in either direction after earnings, worth roughly $93 per share. That lines up closely with Micron’s actual track record.
Over the last 14 earnings reactions, Micron finished the next session higher 6 times and lower 8 times, according to TipRanks. The average one-day swing, regardless of direction, was about 8.4%.
After the company’s last earnings report, the stock jumped roughly 16% the following session. That kind of move is exactly why options traders are bracing for volatility again this week.
Away from the immediate numbers, Micron said its HBM3E and HBM4 capacity is sold out through all of calendar 2027. HBM4E development remains on track for volume production sometime in 2027.
The company recently demonstrated what it called the world’s first 512GB DDR5 RDIMM, with AMD and Intel currently validating the module. Micron has also outlined more than $250 billion in planned U.S. investment through 2035.
Wall Street’s consensus rating on Micron stands at Strong Buy, based on 20 analysts covering the stock. That includes 19 Buy ratings, one Hold, and zero Sell ratings, with an average price target of $1,501.84.
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