TLDR
- Microsoft CMO Takeshi Numoto sold 4,500 MSFT stock worth $1.81 million on June 12, 2026
- MSFT closed at $390.74, down 6.2% over the past week and 17.4% year to date
- A DCF model puts intrinsic value at $558.64 per share — roughly 30% above the current price
- MSFT trades at a P/E of 23.18x, below the software industry average of 27.01x
- Despite the drop, 3-year and 5-year returns remain at 16.8% and 56.9% respectively
Microsoft (MSFT) closed at $390.74 on June 15, 2026. The stock is down 17.4% year to date, 7.4% over the past month, and 6.2% over just the past week.
That’s a rough stretch by any measure. But some valuation models are now flashing “undervalued.”
Microsoft’s Chief Marketing Officer, Takeshi Numoto, sold 4,500 MSFT stock on June 12 in a deal worth approximately $1.81 million. It’s a multi-million dollar adjustment to his personal holdings, and it comes right in the middle of the broader selloff.
Insider sales don’t always signal bearishness — executives sell for all kinds of personal reasons — but the timing will attract attention given the stock’s recent weakness.
What the Valuation Models Are Saying
A two-stage Discounted Cash Flow model, which projects future free cash flows and discounts them back to present value, puts MSFT’s intrinsic value at $558.64 per share. At the current price of $390.74, that’s a gap of about 30%.
The model uses Microsoft’s trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $93.7 billion as its base, with projections rising to $181.1 billion by 2030.
On a price-to-earnings basis, MSFT currently trades at 23.18x. That’s below the software industry average of 27.01x and below the peer group average of 28.46x.
Simply Wall St’s “Fair Ratio” — which adjusts for company-specific factors like earnings growth, margins, and risk — pegs a fair P/E for Microsoft at 45.10x. That’s nearly double where the stock trades today.
Both methods land on the same conclusion: undervalued.
Still, the Longer View Holds Up
Despite the 2026 slide, Microsoft’s longer-term numbers are still respectable. The 3-year return sits at 16.8%. The 5-year return is 56.9%.
The recent drop has compressed the valuation multiples to levels not typically associated with a company of Microsoft’s size and cash flow profile.
MSFT scores a full 6 out of 6 on Simply Wall St’s valuation checks — a clean sweep that doesn’t happen often for mega-cap tech.
Analyst Signals
The one caveat is margin pressure. Heavy investment in AI infrastructure is weighing on near-term free cash flow, and the stock currently sits below several key moving averages. The technical sentiment signal is listed as Hold.
Average daily trading volume stands at approximately 34.9 million — a liquid name with plenty of institutional eyes on it.
Numoto’s $1.81 million insider sale on June 12 remains the most recent disclosed transaction from within Microsoft’s leadership team.
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