TLDR
- NBIS rose nearly 3% in Monday premarket, trading at $222.00
- Stock has surged 124.1% over the past six months, beating the S&P 500’s 8.9% gain
- Q1 2026 revenue hit $399 million, up 684% year over year
- Nebius raised 2026 capex guidance to $20B–$25B to fund future capacity
- Wall Street holds a consensus Buy rating; average price target is $213.89
Nebius Group (NBIS) climbed nearly 3% in Monday premarket trading, reaching $222.00, as investors rotated back into high-growth AI infrastructure names. Nasdaq futures were up 1.22% and S&P 500 futures gained 0.42%, providing a tailwind for the move.
The stock has now surged 124.1% over the past six months, far outpacing the S&P 500’s 8.9% gain and the Zacks Computer & Technology sector’s 13.2% rise. Microsoft fell 18.9% and CoreWeave gained just 5.9% over the same period.
Today’s move comes after a pullback from NBIS’s 52-week high of $299.86, hit in June. The stock is currently 11.1% below its 20-day moving average of $249.11, suggesting Monday’s action is a rebound attempt rather than a breakout.
Technically, NBIS is trading above its 50-day SMA of $215.09 and well above its 200-day SMA of $132.94. Resistance sits near $233.50 and support around $200.50. The MACD remains below its signal line, a caution flag for momentum traders.
Strong Q1 Sets the Stage
Q1 2026 was a standout quarter. Group revenues jumped 684% year over year to $399 million. The core Nebius AI business grew 841% and hit an annualized run-rate of $1.9 billion.
Adjusted EBITDA margin for the group came in at 32%, while the Nebius AI segment posted a 45% margin. The balance sheet was bolstered by a $4.3 billion convertible note offering and a $2 billion equity investment from NVIDIA.
Cash and equivalents now sit at $9.3 billion. Management reiterated 2026 guidance of $3B–$3.4B in group revenues and annualized run-rate revenues of $7B–$9B, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of around 40%.
Contracted power capacity grew from 2 GW to over 3.5 GW in Q1, with a 4 GW target by year-end. A new Pennsylvania site will add another 1.2 GW when fully operational.
Capex Jumps, Margins to Dip
Nebius raised its 2026 capex guidance to $20B–$25B, up from $16B–$20B previously. Management said the higher spending supports 2027 capacity already backed by customer commitments.
Margins are expected to dip in Q2 as capacity investments are recognized before revenue comes in. They’re projected to recover to Q1 levels in Q3 and improve further in Q4.
Pipeline generation rose 3.5 times sequentially in Q1. Demand continues to outpace available capacity and customers are increasingly making prepayments to secure future GPU access.
On valuation, NBIS trades at a price/book of 7.53x versus the industry average of 3.91x. Earnings are expected on August 6, with Wall Street projecting a loss of 73 cents per share and revenue of $576.67 million.
Bank of America holds a Buy with a $280 price target. BNP Paribas initiated with Neutral at $255. DA Davidson kept Neutral at $250. The consensus average sits at $213.89, below the current price.
Zacks currently rates NBIS a Hold (Rank #3).
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