TLDR
- ON Semiconductor hit a new 52-week high of $99.64, up 145% over the past year
- B. Riley upgraded ON to Buy, raising its price target from $64 to $115
- Analyst Craig Ellis believes the cyclical trough is behind the company
- Q1 2026 results are due May 4, with guidance calling for revenue of $1.435B–$1.535B
- MOSFET lead times for Onsemi products have extended to 26 weeks, per Baird data
ON Semiconductor has been on a tear. The stock touched $99.64 this week, a new 52-week high, continuing a run that has seen the stock climb 145% over the past year.
ON Semiconductor Corporation, ON
The move comes as B. Riley analyst Craig Ellis upgraded ON to Buy from Neutral, nearly doubling the firm’s price target from $64 to $115.
Ellis made the call ahead of ON’s Q1 2026 earnings report, due May 4. His thesis: the cyclical downturn is over, and the company’s focus on power semiconductors, silicon carbide for EVs, and industrial automation positions it well for the recovery.
The upgrade is one of the more aggressive conviction calls on a U.S. chipmaker this spring. ON was trading around $98 intraday at the time of the call.
BofA Securities also upgraded ON to Buy recently, pointing to the company’s AI capabilities, its Treo product line, and a newly authorized $6 billion share buyback program spanning three years.
ON’s CEO Hassane El-Khoury has said the company is seeing “increasing signs of stabilization” in its key markets, language that aligns with the bull case analysts are now making.
Earnings and Financials
Full-year 2025 revenue came in at $5.995 billion, down 15% year over year. Despite the revenue dip, free cash flow hit a record $1.418 billion for the year.
Q1 2026 guidance calls for revenue between $1.435 billion and $1.535 billion, with EPS of $0.56 to $0.66. That suggests sequential stabilization, which is what the market has been waiting to see.
The stock carries a trailing P/E of 307x, which looks stretched. But the forward P/E of 31x reflects the earnings recovery analysts are pricing in.
Market cap sits near $35 billion. Analyst consensus is currently split: 11 Buy ratings versus 23 Holds.
InvestingPro data flags the stock as overvalued relative to its Fair Value estimate, placing it among the most overvalued names in the market right now.
Supply Chain Tightening
There’s another tailwind quietly building. Baird reported that semiconductor lead times are rising across multiple segments.
MOSFET lead times are averaging 25 weeks industry-wide. Onsemi’s MOSFETs specifically are seeing lead times stretch to 26 weeks — a sign demand is picking up faster than supply can respond.
That kind of supply tightness tends to support pricing power, which would help margins recover off the 38% non-GAAP gross margin trough the company hit last cycle.
Risks remain on the table. Barclays flagged ON’s heavy exposure to automotive and China markets when it initiated coverage at Equal-Weight.
Insider activity is also worth watching. CFO selling in April adds a note of caution to an otherwise bullish setup.
All eyes now turn to May 4, when ON Semiconductor reports Q1 2026 results. The earnings print will be the first real test of whether the stabilization story holds up.
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