TLDR
- Oracle (ORCL) shares fell 6% after reports showed AI partner OpenAI’s annualized revenue came in lower than expected.
- OpenAI told investors it hit about $50 billion in annualized revenue, well below the $68 billion figure that had circulated last month.
- The gap came from an accounting mix-up: the earlier number included gross revenue from OpenAI’s partners.
- Separately, Oracle has had to truck in natural gas for data centers in Salt Lake City and Texas due to pipeline delays.
- Oracle is down 31% year-to-date and trades 57% below its 52-week high of $313.
Oracle shares dropped 6% on October 8 after new numbers on AI partner OpenAI’s revenue fell short of what investors had been told. The stock closed near $135, a long way from its 52-week high of $313 set back in October 2025.
The move came after CNBC reported that OpenAI’s annualized revenue hit roughly $50 billion at the end of September. That figure is much lower than the $68 billion run rate that had been widely reported just weeks earlier.
The Financial Times first surfaced the $50 billion number, which appeared in an investor presentation tied to OpenAI’s push to justify an $852 billion valuation. OpenAI is reportedly eyeing a 2027 IPO.
Where Did the $68 Billion Number Come From
According to a person familiar with the matter, the earlier $68 billion figure included gross revenue from OpenAI’s partners. That made it easier to compare against rival Anthropic, but it also painted a rosier picture than the core number suggests.
Once the real figure came out, AI-linked stocks across the board took a hit. Oracle, given its deep infrastructure ties to OpenAI, bore a big chunk of the selling.
Rising bond yields added more pressure to the sell-off. Higher yields tend to hit growth-heavy tech names harder, and Oracle’s valuation has been built on expectations of fast AI-driven cloud growth.
Oracle stock is no stranger to big swings. It has moved more than 5% in a single session 36 times over the past year, so traders are used to volatility here.
The last major move was just 9 days earlier, when shares jumped 4% on news of Oracle Fusion Claw, a new AI execution tool for enterprise applications. Oracle also rolled out compliance tools aimed at financial institutions around the same time.
Data Center Delays Add to the Pressure
On top of the OpenAI revenue news, Oracle is dealing with its own operational headaches. The company has had to truck in natural gas to keep data center projects in Salt Lake City and Texas moving, after pipeline delays threatened to slow things down.
Oracle has also declared force majeure on some of these delays. That’s a legal term companies use to flag circumstances outside their control, and it signals real logistical risk for the buildout.
The company’s cloud infrastructure business still has a large backlog of committed customers. That backlog is often cited as a reason for optimism on future revenue.
But building these data centers costs a lot of money. Oracle already carries a sizable debt load, and any slowdown in turning that AI capacity into paying customers could squeeze profits further.
Oracle is now down 31% since the start of the year. Despite that, someone who put $1,000 into Oracle stock five years ago would still be sitting on about $1,434 today.
The stock’s average trading volume sits around 31.5 million shares. Oracle’s market cap currently stands at $437.7 billion, and the technical sentiment signal on the stock is rated a “Hold.”
Chart Analysis
Oracle’s longer-term chart shows a recovery off the April lows near $120, with shares climbing back above $200 before pulling back hard. A rising support trendline has formed from that April bottom through the recent pullback, now sitting just under current levels around $135.
The stock is down 5% on the day, trading at $135.69, with support at the $130 to $135 zone from earlier in the year. RSI at 41.61 and a negative MACD both point to fading momentum, though price is still holding above the longer-term trendline for now.
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