TLDR
- Wells Fargo upgraded OSCR to Equal Weight from Underweight, raising its price target to $20 from $11
- The stock trades near $20.50 and is up 43% year-to-date
- Florida, Oscar’s biggest market at ~64% of premiums, saw membership fall 13.5% YoY but medical loss ratios improved 370 basis points
- Q1 2026 EPS came in at $2.07, nearly double the $1.06 analyst estimate
- Analysts are more bullish on 2026 but warn visibility beyond that year remains low
Oscar Health (OSCR) got a lift Wednesday after Wells Fargo upgraded the stock and nearly doubled its price target, sending the insurer up around 14% on the day.
Wells Fargo analyst Stephen Baxter moved OSCR from Underweight to Equal Weight and raised his price target to $20 from $11. The stock was trading near $20.50 at the time of the upgrade.
The move came after Wells Fargo reviewed statutory filings and found that enrollment and morbidity outcomes on the health insurance exchanges are tracking better than expected in 2026.
The industry is also showing material improvement in medical loss ratios, and insurers appear to be booking risk adjustment more conservatively than last year â which Wells Fargo sees as a positive sign.
Baxter said the firm is more comfortable with where the exchange market is headed in 2026, though he was clear that visibility beyond that point remains low. Payment integrity was flagged as an area that will stay in focus.
Florida Trends
Florida is Oscar’s most important state, accounting for roughly 64% of its premiums. Membership there dropped 13.5% year-over-year, but the medical loss ratio improved 370 basis points over the same period.
Wells Fargo also flagged a potential 640 basis points of conservatism in how Oscar is booking risk adjustment in Florida â a dynamic that is the opposite of what happened last year.
Oscar came into Wednesday already up 43% year-to-date, trading near $20.50 before the upgrade news pushed it higher.
Despite the rally, the stock saw some choppiness through the session. Investors appeared to be weighing the limited visibility beyond 2026 against the improved near-term picture.
Q1 Results and Leadership Change
Oscar reported Q1 2026 earnings per share of $2.07, nearly double the $1.06 analysts had expected. Revenue, however, came in below estimates during the same period.
Analysts predict Oscar Health will turn profitable in full-year 2026, with three analysts recently revising earnings estimates upward.
On the leadership front, co-founder Mario Schlosser stepped back from his roles as President of Technology and Chief Technology Officer. He moved into a Co-Founder and Advisor to the CEO role, where he will continue working on Oscar’s AI and digital health efforts and remain on the board.
The stock carries a market cap of around $6.37 billion. Average daily trading volume runs close to 7.16 million shares.
Wells Fargo’s upgrade is part of a broader trend of analysts turning more constructive on Oscar’s near-term trajectory based on early 2026 exchange market data.
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