TLDR
- Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures were little changed early Wednesday.
- Investors are waiting on the August PCE inflation report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- Treasury yields climbed to fresh multidecade highs, with the 10-year near 5.21%.
- ADP data showed 90,000 private sector jobs added in September, above forecasts.
- Traders now see Fed rate hike odds for October near a coin flip.
Stock futures barely moved on Wednesday morning. Traders were waiting for a fresh inflation report before making any big moves.
Dow futures and S&P 500 futures both sat just above flat. Nasdaq 100 futures slipped about 0.1% after stocks closed lower the day before.
Treasury yields kept climbing. The 10-year yield touched levels not seen in decades, sitting near 5.21%.
Inflation report in focus
The August Personal Consumption Expenditures index is the main event this morning. It is the Federal Reserve’s preferred way to measure inflation.
Economists expect the core reading, which leaves out food and energy prices, to stay at 3.3% compared to a year ago. That would match the prior month’s pace.
A hotter than expected number could push traders to rethink how the Fed handles rates. A cooler number could ease some of the pressure building in bond markets.
Oil prices also stayed in focus. Crude oil futures held steady in the mid-90 dollar per barrel range as the conflict in Iran continued into its seventh month.
Higher oil prices tend to feed back into inflation data, which is part of why traders are watching crude so closely right now.
Jobs data and Fed expectations
Before the inflation report, ADP released its private payrolls data. The report showed the economy added 90,000 private sector jobs in September.
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 ADP Employment Change came in at 90K, higher than expected.
Expectations: 73K pic.twitter.com/eXbeYVglUy
— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) September 30, 2026
That number beat economist forecasts of 70,000 jobs. It was also a big jump from the revised 36,000 jobs added in August.
Stronger job growth can sometimes push the Fed toward keeping rates higher for longer. Markets reacted with only small moves after the release.
The 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.9% following the report. The 10-year yield moved off its earlier lows.
Traders have adjusted their bets on what the Fed will do at its October meeting. Odds of a rate hike now sit near 50%, down from more than 70% a day earlier.
New York Federal Reserve president John Williams said there was no need for urgency in raising rates next month. Markets read that comment as a signal the Fed could choose to hold steady instead.
Earnings on deck
A few company earnings reports are also on investors’ radar today. Conagra Brands is set to report results before the market opens.
Micron will report earnings after the closing bell. Its results are expected to offer a look at how the memory chip and AI hardware market is holding up.
Both reports could add some movement to markets later in the session, especially in tech and consumer sectors.
For now, futures remain in a holding pattern. The next real catalyst arrives with the PCE inflation data at 8:30 a.m. ET.
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