TLDR
- Rivian priced a 75 million-share public offering at $15.50 per share, raising ~$1.2 billion in gross proceeds.
- The stock dropped over 18% on Tuesday and was down a further ~4% in pre-market Wednesday on dilution fears.
- Q2 revenue is estimated at $1.55B–$1.65B, beating analyst estimates of ~$1.45B.
- Rivian raised its full-year 2026 delivery forecast to 65,000–70,000 vehicles, up from 62,000–67,000.
- Three analysts issued Sell ratings in recent days, with JPMorgan and Mizuho both citing capital spending and EV subsidy headwinds.
Rivian (RIVN) stock fell more than 18% on Tuesday after the EV maker priced a 75 million-share public offering at $15.50 per share, raising approximately $1.2 billion in gross proceeds. The stock was down a further 4.7% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.
The offering was priced below where the stock had been trading, and the sheer volume of new supply hit sentiment hard. Underwriters also received a 30-day option to buy an additional 11.25 million shares, and the deal is expected to close on Thursday, July 9.
Rivian said proceeds will go toward general corporate purposes, with a portion earmarked to meet obligations under a loan agreement with the U.S. Department of Energy.
The stock had been on a run heading into this week, buoyed by better-than-expected Q2 delivery numbers. Rivian delivered 12,194 vehicles in the quarter, ahead of its own forecast and JPMorgan’s projection of 11,000 units.
Alongside the offering, Rivian pre-released Q2 revenue estimates of $1.55 billion to $1.65 billion, well above analyst consensus of approximately $1.45 billion.
The company also lifted its full-year 2026 delivery guidance to 65,000–70,000 vehicles, up from a prior range of 62,000–67,000.
Wall Street Stays Cautious
Despite the upbeat operational numbers, Wall Street isn’t warming up to the stock. Three analysts issued Sell ratings on RIVN in recent days.
JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta kept his Sell rating, pointing to Rivian’s heavy capital spending as a key concern, even after the strong delivery beat.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh also held his Sell rating, warning that battery-electric vehicle sales could come in flat year-over-year. He tied his bearish view to the end of EV subsidies in the U.S.
Jefferies was slightly more constructive, raising its price target to $17 from $16, but kept its Hold rating. The firm noted the equity raise came after a sharp rally following the Q2 volume data.
Workforce Cuts Add to the Pressure
Earlier in the week, reports of job cuts added more selling pressure. Rivian is said to have reduced headcount by hundreds of workers, focused on service and customer operations — under 2% of its total workforce.
Rivian remains unprofitable and is counting on its more affordable R2 SUV to drive volume growth. The R2 launched in March, with orders opening last month.
The broader market didn’t help either. The Nasdaq fell 1.2% on Tuesday as chipmakers sold off, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.5%.
Across 17 analysts covering the stock over the past three months, the consensus rating sits at Hold, with eight Buys, five Holds, and four Sells. The average price target of $18.24 implies roughly 11% upside from current levels.
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