TLDR
- SoftBank stock jumped up to 14% on Friday, extending a near-20% surge from Thursday, bringing its two-day rally to roughly 32%
- Nvidia’s record quarterly revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% year-over-year, drove fresh enthusiasm for AI-linked stocks including SoftBank
- SoftBank-owned Arm Holdings rose more than 16% on Friday, directly boosting SoftBank’s perceived asset value
- OpenAI is reportedly preparing a confidential US IPO filing, potentially as soon as Friday, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as advisors
- SoftBank reported record annual net profit of ¥5 trillion for the year to March, with cumulative OpenAI investment gains totalling $45 billion
SoftBank Group stock hit 6,881 yen on Friday, up as much as 14% on the day, sitting just below its all-time high of 6,923.8 yen. The move came a day after the stock surged nearly 20%, adding roughly $35 billion in market value in a single session.
The two-day gain of around 32% has drawn attention across markets, with investors and analysts now split on whether the move reflects real value or a short-term AI-driven trade.
Three events aligned to spark the rally. Nvidia reported quarterly revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% year-over-year, reinforcing the view that AI infrastructure spending is still growing. That sent ripples through every company tied to the AI buildout.
SoftBank sits near the center of that trade. Through its ownership of Arm Holdings and its major stake in OpenAI, it functions as one of the most direct public-market bets on the AI theme.
Arm Holdings surged more than 16% on Friday. Since SoftBank holds a large portion of Arm, a sharp move in the chip designer moves the needle on how investors value SoftBank’s overall asset base.
OpenAI IPO Filing Adds Fuel
The third and perhaps most watched catalyst was news that OpenAI is reportedly preparing a confidential US IPO filing, possibly as soon as Friday. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are said to be involved.
Andrew Jackson of Ortus Advisors described the IPO prospect as the connective tissue of the rally — a single event that lets investors link Nvidia’s demand signal, Arm’s valuation, and SoftBank’s private AI exposure into one trade.
SoftBank also recently reported its strongest ever annual results. Net profit for the year to March reached ¥5 trillion, the highest ever recorded by a Japanese company. Cumulative gains on its OpenAI investment alone totalled $45 billion.
CreditSights, a unit of Fitch Ratings, maintained an “outperform” recommendation on SoftBank debt, saying the company’s underlying asset value remained strong despite a more stretched balance sheet.
Bloomberg Intelligence analysts noted that potential listings of OpenAI and SoftBank’s energy and data centre unit SB Energy could help narrow SoftBank’s high-20% discount to net asset value and free up capital for new investments.
Analysts Are Not All Convinced
Not everyone is buying the rally. Vey-Sern Ling of UBP cautioned that holding-company discounts rarely close just because underlying assets are performing. Shareholders in the parent often do not capture the full value of what’s underneath.
SoftBank’s leverage, asset-backed financing, and reliance on private-market valuations complicate the picture further.
TD Cowen analyst Krish Sankar raised his SoftBank ADR price target from $13 to $20 but kept a Hold rating — a sign that even analysts upgrading their numbers are not necessarily recommending investors chase the stock at current levels.
The SoftBank ADR move reflects the same dynamic seen in Tokyo, with the stock climbing sharply across both markets during the two-day run.
🚨 Our MAY Stock Picks Are Live!
A new month means new opportunities. Our analysts have just released their top stock picks for May, highlighting companies with strong momentum that rank highly on our KO Score algorithm. We’re also now sharing trade ideas for both long-term and short-term investors, giving you more ways to spot potential opportunities in the market.
Sign up to Knockout Stocks today and get 50% off to unlock the full list and see which stocks made the cut.
Use coupon code Special50 for your exclusive discount!
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
