TLDR
- SPCX fell 4.05% Thursday, slipping back below its $135 IPO price
- 319 million newly unlocked shares added fresh supply pressure to the market
- The drop ends SpaceX’s six-day streak of closing above its IPO price
- SpaceX completed a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Cursor on August 14, adding ~389 million new Class A shares
- Analysts maintain a Moderate Buy rating with an average price target of $232.35
SpaceX stock dropped 4.05% on Thursday, falling back below its $135 IPO price to around $130-$134. The decline came as 319 million previously locked-up shares became eligible for trading.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
This was the second lockup period to expire since SpaceX’s June IPO. The newly released shares represent roughly 7% of the company’s total outstanding stock.
The drop ended a six-day streak of the stock closing above its IPO price. It also extended SPCX’s losing streak to three consecutive sessions.
The August 6 unlock had already doubled SpaceX’s public float when 911.5 million shares hit the market. Interestingly, the stock actually rose 6% during that first, larger unlock. Thursday’s smaller release had the opposite effect.
The difference this time comes down to market demand and dilution concerns. The float had already expanded dramatically, and buyers showed less appetite at current price levels.
The Cursor Deal Adds to Dilution Pressure
The lockup expiry came just days after SpaceX closed its $60 billion all-stock acquisition of AI coding platform Cursor on August 14. That deal issued roughly 389 million new Class A shares, adding further dilution to the float.
The combination of the acquisition shares and the lockup release means the tradable supply of SPCX has grown sharply in a short period of time.
SpaceX has also faced pressure from its capital spending. The company’s Q2 earnings report disclosed $18.4 billion in capital expenditures, rattling investors and sending the stock down nearly 8% at the time.
Before that, a $25 billion corporate bond offering in late June triggered a 16% single-day drop after raising concerns about cash burn.
More Supply Coming Later This Year
The lockup calendar is not done. In November 2026, another 1.3 billion shares unlock alongside Q3 earnings. The full 180-day IPO lockup expires in December 2026.
Then in June 2027, Elon Musk’s 6.42 billion shares become eligible to trade. That last wave is the largest supply event on the horizon by far.
SpaceX staged the biggest IPO in U.S. history on June 12, pricing at $135. The stock surged in its first week, hitting a record high of $225.64, briefly giving SpaceX a market cap above both Microsoft and Amazon.
It has since pulled back to the $130-$140 range, with a post-IPO low of $108.27 reached less than two months after listing.
Despite the volatility, Wall Street remains cautiously optimistic. SPCX carries a Moderate Buy consensus based on 24 Buy ratings, five Holds, and three Sells from analysts who have covered the stock since the IPO.
The average analyst price target sits at $232.35, implying upside of around 73% from current levels.
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