TLDR
- SpaceX stock surged 16% on Friday after the first lockup expiration failed to trigger the expected wave of insider selling
- The stock was up another 3.1% in Monday premarket, trading at $137.09
- Citi reiterated its $200 price target and revised 2026/27 guidance higher, seeing ~$1 trillion revenue by 2031
- Q2 revenue came in at $7.81 billion, up 91.9% year-over-year, beating EPS estimates
- A second lockup expiration is due August 20, unlocking an additional 7% of restricted shares
SpaceX (SPCX) stock was trading at $137.09 in Monday premarket, up 3.1%, extending Friday’s 16% surge after the first lockup expiration came and went without the expected selloff.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Wall Street had braced for heavy selling pressure on Thursday when roughly 911 million restricted insider shares became eligible to trade. That wave never came. Short sellers were caught off guard, and institutional investors who had been sitting on the sidelines moved in to buy the dip.
Before the unlock, only about 5% of SpaceX’s float traded freely. With the float now expanding to over 1.5 billion shares, large funds can build positions without the extreme price impact that plagued the stock in its early weeks.
The stock has still had a rough run since its June 12 IPO. It hit a closing high of $192.58 on June 15, just three days after listing, and then fell roughly 30% through Friday’s close.
Citi reiterated its $200 price target on Monday and lifted its 2026/27 revenue forecasts, projecting around $1 trillion in revenue by 2031. SpaceX itself has said it expects to hit that number by 2030, a year earlier.
The Citi team said they see “greater confidence in management’s vision than consensus.” That’s a pretty firm vote of confidence given the stock’s recent volatility.
Q2 Earnings Beat Expectations
SpaceX reported Q2 earnings on August 4. Revenue came in at $7.81 billion, up 91.9% from the same period last year. The adjusted loss of $0.09 per share beat the consensus estimate of $0.26.
Capital spending remains a concern. SpaceX burned through $18.4 billion in capex during the quarter, mostly on AI infrastructure, and has flagged that elevated spending will continue.
Terafab and Tesla Tie-Up
SpaceX and Tesla announced a joint $16.8 billion investment to build Terafab, a semiconductor factory in Grimes County, Texas. The facility is designed to produce in-house AI chips for Tesla’s robotics operations and SpaceX’s space-based computing network.
Elon Musk also said Starship may have resolved a key technical issue that could improve launch economics going forward.
Across Wall Street, 3 analysts rate SPCX a Strong Buy, 25 a Buy, 9 a Hold, and 2 a Sell. The average price target sits at $229.71.
The next lockup expiration is August 20 and will free up an additional 7% of restricted shares held by employees and pre-IPO investors.
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