TLDR
- Tesla shares down 42% since January’s Q4 report, now hovering near $200
- Q1 deliveries dropped 13% to 337,000 vehicles, well below projections
- Wall Street expects $0.36-0.43 EPS and $20.1-22.4 billion in revenue
- Even meeting forecasts would represent flat or negative year-over-year growth
- Upcoming earnings call will focus on Model Y updates, new lower-priced model, and robotaxi plans
Tesla is set to release its first-quarter earnings after markets close on Tuesday, with investors feeling anxious about the electric vehicle maker’s performance. The company’s stock has plummeted more than 40% since its last earnings report in January, creating a tense atmosphere ahead of today’s announcement.
Wall Street analysts have lowered their expectations following Tesla’s disappointing first-quarter vehicle deliveries. The company sold approximately 337,000 cars, representing a 13% drop from the same period last year. This figure fell about 40,000 units short of projections.
The current consensus anticipates earnings per share between $0.36 and $0.43, with revenue ranging from $20.1 billion to $22.4 billion. These numbers would represent little to no growth compared to Q1 2024, when Tesla reported $0.45 EPS and $21.3 billion in revenue.
Sales Slump and Margin Pressure
Analysts have pointed to several factors behind Tesla’s sales disappointment. The company recently updated its bestselling Model Y, which likely caused a temporary dip as production ramped up and buyers waited for the newer version.
Some market watchers have also speculated that CEO Elon Musk’s involvement in the Trump administration might be turning away some of Tesla’s core customers. The company has traditionally appealed to politically left-leaning drivers interested in green technology.
The weak delivery numbers have raised concerns about Tesla’s profit margins. Wall Street expects operating income below $1 billion and operating profit margin under 5%. If these projections prove accurate, it would mark Tesla’s worst quarter for margin since early 2020.
For the second quarter, analysts are more optimistic. They forecast deliveries exceeding 400,000 vehicles as production of the updated Model Y reaches full capacity.
Investor Focus Points
Today’s earnings call will be closely watched for several key updates. Investors want to hear about upcoming catalysts that could drive the stock higher later this year.
Tesla plans to launch a new, lower-priced model in 2025. Any details about this vehicle’s development, pricing, or release timeline could impact market sentiment.
The company’s robotaxi service, scheduled to launch around June, represents another potential growth driver. Updates on this initiative will be scrutinized by investors looking for signs of progress.
Perhaps most importantly, shareholders will be listening for reassurance from CEO Elon Musk. They want confirmation that he remains fully engaged with Tesla’s operations despite his Washington commitments.
Stock Price at Crossroads
Tesla stock currently hovers around the $200 mark, a level that has sparked debate among investors. Some view this as a key support line, while others see potential for further decline if earnings disappoint.
On social media platform X (formerly Twitter), investor debates highlight the mixed sentiment. Some users have indicated they would increase their positions if the stock dips below $200, citing long-term faith in Tesla’s robotics division.
The analyst community appears equally divided. According to market data, Tesla stock carries a Hold consensus rating. Out of 39 analysts covering the stock in the past three months, 16 rate it as a Buy, 11 as a Hold, and 12 as a Sell.
The average price target sits at $296.66, suggesting a potential 30.4% upside from current levels. However, this optimistic target contrasts with the split opinions among analysts, reflecting broader uncertainty about Tesla’s near-term growth prospects.
The current stock price represents a steep 42% decline since late January. This low starting point could work in investors’ favor if Tesla’s results prove “better than feared,” potentially triggering a relief rally.
Whatever the outcome, today’s earnings report and subsequent call will likely determine Tesla’s stock trajectory in the coming weeks. Investors will be watching closely for signs that the company can navigate its current challenges and return to a growth path.
