TLDR
- Tesla stock rose 1.1% on Wednesday, closing at $425.30, with investors positioning ahead of Thursday’s Q2 delivery report.
- Wall Street expects roughly 400,000–409,000 deliveries for Q2, a wide range reflecting uncertainty around demand.
- European registrations climbed in June across France, Denmark, Sweden, and Spain, pointing to a regional recovery.
- Michael Burry disclosed new short positions against Tesla, while BYD is reportedly set to overtake Tesla again in fully electric vehicle sales.
- Tesla’s annual deliveries peaked at 1.8 million in 2023 and have declined since, with 2026 expected to bring modest recovery to around 1.7 million.
Tesla (TSLA) stock gained 1.1% on Wednesday, closing at $425.30 after touching an intraday high of $432.86. Volume came in well below average, at around 39.7 million versus the typical 58.6 million. The move came as investors positioned ahead of a closely watched Q2 delivery report due Thursday.
The broader market was mixed. The Nasdaq fell 0.4% and the S&P 500 slipped 0.1%, while Tesla moved against the tech tide. Micron dropped 6%, Nvidia lost around 2%, and SpaceX fell more than 6%.
Heading into Wednesday, Tesla had already gained 10.8% on the week, riding back-to-back advances on Monday and Tuesday. The stock carries a market cap of $1.60 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 390.
What to Expect from Q2 Deliveries
Analyst estimates for Q2 deliveries vary considerably. FactSet’s consensus sits around 409,000 vehicles, Bloomberg’s near 400,000, and Tesla’s own compiled consensus at roughly 406,000. The spread reflects genuine uncertainty around demand during a quarter shaped by geopolitical tensions, changes to US EV incentives, and rising fuel prices.
A beat would mark Tesla’s second straight quarter of year-over-year delivery growth — something the company hasn’t achieved since 2024. Annual deliveries peaked at about 1.8 million vehicles in 2023, then declined in both 2024 and 2025. Wall Street currently expects roughly 1.7 million for the full year 2026.
Tesla chose not to develop a lower-priced vehicle platform, opting instead to focus on its Cybercab robotaxi program. The expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit has also added pressure on US consumers.
European Data Offers a Bright Spot
New data released Wednesday showed a pickup in Tesla registrations across several European markets in June. Registrations rose 39% in Denmark, 56% in Sweden, and 5.6% in Spain. France saw more than double the registrations from a year earlier.
Norway was the exception, with registrations falling 43% year-over-year, partly attributed to demand being pulled forward ahead of 2026 incentive changes.
The European recovery comes after a rough stretch in which Tesla lost ground to Chinese manufacturers, faced a limited product lineup, and dealt with consumer backlash tied to CEO Elon Musk’s political activity.
On the analyst side, Deutsche Bank and Royal Bank of Canada both hold Buy ratings. BTIG downgraded to Neutral in early June. Truist moved to Hold with a $400 price target; Mizuho holds Outperform with a $480 target. The overall consensus among 45 analysts stands at Hold, with an average price target of $403.07.
Not all the signals are positive. Michael Burry disclosed fresh short positions against Tesla, flagging valuation and execution risk. Separately, BYD is reportedly on track to surpass Tesla again as the top seller of fully electric vehicles globally.
In Q1, Tesla reported EPS of $0.41, beating the $0.39 consensus. Revenue came in at $22.39 billion, up 15.8% year-over-year, though slightly below the $22.96 billion estimate.
Thursday’s delivery number will be the next hard data point for a stock that has run hard into the report.
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