TLDR
- Tesla stock jumped 4.6% to $399.15 on Thursday as SpaceX’s IPO order book closed, with investors hoping selling pressure tied to the capital raise has eased.
- Tesla had dropped nearly 10% over the prior week, with some attributing the slide to retail investors selling TSLA to fund SpaceX purchases.
- SpaceX raised roughly $75 billion in its IPO, allocating around 30% to retail investors — far above the typical amount.
- JPMorgan upgraded Tesla from underweight to neutral and raised its price target from $145 to $475, while the consensus target sits at $404.37.
- Nuveen trimmed its Tesla position by 2.6% in Q4 but the stock remains its 9th largest holding; 66.2% of Tesla is held by institutional investors.
Tesla (TSLA) stock closed at $399.15 on Thursday, up 4.6%, as the order book for SpaceX’s initial public offering officially closed. The S&P 500 gained 1.75% and the Dow added 1.86% on the same day.
The bounce came after a rough stretch. Tesla had fallen close to 10% over the five trading sessions leading into Thursday, stirring debate about whether retail investors were offloading TSLA to free up cash for SpaceX purchases.
SpaceX’s IPO is one for the record books — the company raised around $75 billion, with roughly 30% of that allocated to retail investors. That’s a much larger retail slice than a typical IPO, and it drew attention given how many of Tesla’s retail holders are loyal Musk followers.
Still, the math shows the direct impact on Tesla may be limited. The retail portion of the SpaceX raise amounts to roughly 2% of Tesla’s total market cap. Not all that cash was coming from TSLA sales either.
The broader market also played a role. The Nasdaq fell about 6% over the same week. Given Tesla’s beta of 1.80, a 10% to 12% drop would be in line with historical patterns during a market pullback of that size.
Analyst Moves
The analyst picture has shifted somewhat. JPMorgan upgraded Tesla from underweight to neutral on June 5th and nearly tripled its price target, moving it from $145 to $475. Evercore also upgraded the stock to outperform on the same day.
Not everyone is bullish. Truist dropped its target from $438 to $400 and maintained a Hold. Jefferies held its neutral rating. Oppenheimer’s Colin Rusch kept a Hold with no price target, though he did note potential collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX on physical AI and stationary storage.
The consensus across 44 analysts sits at Hold, with an average price target of $404.37. Twenty-two analysts have Buy ratings, seventeen Hold, and five Sell.
Institutional Activity
Nuveen cut its Tesla position by 2.6% in Q4, selling 350,541 units to hold 13.19 million, valued at roughly $5.93 billion. Despite the trim, it remains Tesla’s 9th largest position.
Vanguard added 6.5 million units in Q4, bringing its total to 258.9 million. Norges Bank opened a fresh position worth around $17.1 billion. Capital World lifted its stake by 5.8% in Q3. In total, institutions hold 66.2% of the company.
On the insider side, Director Kathleen Wilson-Thompson sold 26,409 units at $378.11 on April 30th, reducing her stake by 35.3%. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 3,000 units at $450 on May 13th to cover tax obligations tied to vesting equity awards.
Tesla last reported earnings on April 23rd, posting $0.41 EPS — slightly above the $0.39 consensus. Revenue came in at $22.39 billion, up 15.8% year over year, though slightly below analyst estimates of $22.96 billion.
The 12-month trading range sits between $288.77 and $498.83. Tesla’s 50-day moving average is $397.84 and its 200-day is $416.08.
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