TLDR
- Tesla stock was down 1.5% in premarket trading at $404.95 on Tuesday, while SpaceX surged ~10% to $211, giving it a market cap of ~$2.8 trillion vs. Tesla’s ~$1.8 trillion
- Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney expects Q2 deliveries of 420,000 vehicles, above the 409,000 consensus estimate
- Analyst sentiment is mixed: 21 Buy, 18 Hold, 5 Sell ratings, with an average price target of $404.37
- Tesla’s robotaxi now runs in four cities; investors are watching for Optimus Gen 3 and broader AI progress
- European regulators raised concerns over Tesla’s FSD safety data, with Swedish and Dutch authorities calling it misleading
Tesla stock opened at $411.15 on Tuesday before slipping 1.5% in premarket trading to $404.95. SpaceX, meanwhile, jumped around 10% to $211 a share, pushing its market cap to roughly $2.8 trillion — overtaking Tesla’s $1.8 trillion valuation.
That’s a notable flip. Both companies are tied to Elon Musk, but SpaceX’s IPO debut has grabbed the attention. Tesla is up about 25% over the past 12 months, but down around 9% year to date, and has largely gone sideways for the past month.
The S&P 500 futures were down 0.1% at the time, so Tesla’s dip isn’t entirely a solo act.
SpaceX listed at $135 and is now up about 56% from its IPO price including premarket trading. Tesla hasn’t lost ground badly — it just hasn’t kept pace.
Wall Street is keeping a close eye on Tesla’s upcoming Q2 delivery numbers, due in a few weeks. Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney puts the likely figure at 420,000 vehicles — ahead of the 409,000 consensus estimate on FactSet. In Q2 2025, Tesla delivered around 384,000 cars.
Tesla’s 50-day moving average sits at $399.36 and its 200-day moving average at $415.94. Its 1-year range runs from $288.77 to $498.83.
For fiscal Q1, Tesla posted EPS of $0.41, beating the $0.39 estimate by $0.02. Revenue came in at $22.39 billion, slightly below the $22.96 billion estimate. Year-over-year revenue was up 15.8%.
AI Progress Is the Real Driver
Investors aren’t just watching deliveries — they want AI milestones. Tesla’s robotaxi service launched in Austin around a year ago and now runs in four cities. Expanding that footprint is one key signal the market is watching.
The other is Optimus. Tesla’s humanoid robot could see a third-generation reveal this summer, which would give the stock another catalyst to work with.
On the analyst side, ratings are split. There are 21 Buy ratings, 18 Holds, and 5 Sells, with an average price target of $404.37 — just below where the stock opened Tuesday at $411.15.
Robert W. Baird cut its target from $538 to $522 but kept an Outperform rating. BNP Paribas Exane downgraded to Underperform earlier this month.
OCONNOR, a UBS Asset Management unit, increased its Tesla position by 15.4% in Q4, ending the period with 13,617 shares worth $6.12 million. Institutional investors and hedge funds now hold 66.20% of TSLA.
Regulatory Headwinds in Europe
There’s a potential drag on the horizon in Europe. Reuters reported that Tesla submitted FSD safety data to European regulators that Swedish and Dutch authorities found misleading. That raises the risk of delays or added scrutiny for FSD rollout in Europe — one of the key markets for Tesla’s AI autonomy push.
Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 3,000 shares on May 13 at $450 each, totaling $1.35 million, to cover tax obligations tied to equity vesting. Director Kathleen Wilson-Thompson sold 26,409 shares on April 30 at $378.11 per share, a 35.3% reduction in her position.
Insiders have sold a combined 57,824 shares worth $21.66 million over the past quarter.
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