TLDR
- Nebius stock fell nearly 14% on Thursday, reversing gains from the previous session
- The drop followed news of a shift to an asset-light business model and raised capex guidance of $20B–$25B for 2026
- Insiders including the CEO, CTO, and Chief Infrastructure Officer sold over $140 million in stock in the past 90 days
- Power partner Bloom Energy secured a $1.7 billion investment to expand Nebius’s energy capacity
- Wall Street analysts hold a Moderate Buy consensus with an average price target of $252.86, implying ~47% upside
Nebius stock closed almost 14% lower on Thursday, erasing gains from the prior session when the stock rallied on news of a new asset-light partnership model and a $1 billion-plus AI compute deal with Reflection AI through 2029.
The stock had struggled to hold above the $190 level at the open, triggering a classic “sell the news” reversal as investors who bought into the previous day’s momentum quickly moved out.
A key concern weighing on the stock is the company’s updated 2026 capital expenditure guidance, now set between $20 billion and $25 billion. Much of the new capacity built from that spending is not expected to generate meaningful revenue until the first half of 2027.
Investors are increasingly looking for clearer signs of cash conversion rather than a growing contract backlog.
Adding to the selling pressure, regulatory filings revealed heavy insider activity. The CEO, CTO, and Chief Infrastructure Officer collectively sold tens of millions in stock, bringing total insider sales to more than $140 million over the past 90 days.
That level of insider selling rarely goes unnoticed on Wall Street.
Bloom Energy Deal
On the same day as the drop, power infrastructure partner Bloom Energy announced a $1.7 billion investment from specialty lender Oaktree and investment advisory firm Industrial Development Funding (IDF). The capital will be used to deploy Bloom’s solid-oxide fuel cell systems to expand Nebius’s power capacity.
IDF CEO Nik Nunes said the goal is to “help Nebius meet the energy demands of the AI economy.” Oaktree joins with a minority equity stake.
Despite the headline-grabbing investment, the market shrugged it off.
Competitive Pressure from Meta
The broader neocloud sector has been under pressure since early July, when reports emerged that Meta Platforms plans to monetize excess AI computing capacity through its own cloud business.
That news has repeatedly triggered selloffs in both Nebius and peer CoreWeave. Each recovery attempt has been met with fresh selling.
On Thursday, the Nasdaq fell 0.6%, providing a weak backdrop for high-multiple growth names like Nebius. The S&P 500 was essentially flat and the Dow slightly positive, pointing to pressure concentrated in tech.
Nebius counts Meta and Microsoft as key clients. In March, it secured a five-year $27 billion AI infrastructure deal with Meta and a $2 billion investment from Nvidia.
On Wall Street, analysts hold a Moderate Buy consensus on NBIS, based on five Buy ratings and three Holds over the past three months. The average price target sits at $252.86, implying roughly 47% upside from current levels.
Even after Thursday’s decline, the stock trades at a premium to neocloud peers and remains well above its 52-week low of $49.
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