TLDR
- XPeng reports Q1 2026 earnings Thursday before market open
- Analysts expect revenue of $1.93 billion, down ~11.76% year-over-year
- Wall Street forecasts a loss of $0.11 per share for the quarter
- 27 analysts rate XPEV a Buy with a mean price target of $24.44
- Options traders are pricing in an ~8.16% move in either direction post-earnings
XPeng reports Q1 2026 earnings Thursday morning, and the stakes are real. The Chinese EV maker is coming off its best gross margin quarter ever ā 21.3% in Q4 2025 ā and investors want to know if that was a turning point or just a good quarter.
XPEV stock is currently trading at around $16.55, down roughly 22% year-to-date. That puts it much closer to its 52-week low of $14.72 than its high of $28.24.
Analysts expect revenue of 13.95 billion yuan ($1.93 billion) for Q1, which would be an 11.76% drop from a year ago. That’s also a steep 37% fall from Q4’s 22.25 billion yuan.
The consensus EPS estimate sits at a loss of $0.11 per share. EPS estimates have dropped 41% over the past 60 days, though they appear to have leveled off in the past week.
Gross Margin Is the Number to Watch
The Q4 gross margin of 21.3% was a record for XPeng. If the company holds anywhere near that level in Q1, it would go a long way toward convincing investors the business model has genuinely improved.
A clear step down from that level, though, would raise questions about whether Q4 was a one-off.
Delivery execution will also be in focus. XPeng guided for 61,000 to 66,000 deliveries in Q1. The company hit 31,011 vehicles in April alone ā its strongest monthly number since the start of 2026 ā but that came after the quarter closed.
China’s EV market has cooled to 2024 comparable-period levels. Subsidy tapering, margin pressure, and weaker consumer demand have weighed on the whole industry, not just XPeng.
What’s Coming Later in 2026
Forward guidance will matter just as much as the headline numbers Thursday. Investors want to know how management sees the rest of 2026 shaping up, and whether the softer Q1 is expected to be temporary.
New model launches could be a catalyst later in the year. Upcoming vehicles include the G9L, Mona L05, and Mona L03 SUVs, all expected in the second half of 2026.
Deutsche Bank estimates the G9L could hit monthly sales of around 4,000 units after its Q3 launch.
XPeng also officially launched its first mass-produced Robotaxi in Guangzhou in mid-May, a move that highlights its autonomous driving push.
Despite the near-term uncertainty, Wall Street remains broadly positive. Twenty-seven analysts rate the stock a Buy, with a mean price target of $24.44 ā implying around 48% upside from current levels.
BNP Paribas Exane is the outlier, having downgraded XPEV to Sell from Hold in late April.
Options traders are pricing in an 8.16% swing in either direction following Thursday’s print.
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