TLDR
- XRP ETF approval odds have reached 92% according to updated data from Polymarket.
- The increase in approval odds is linked to multiple ETF applications submitted by major asset managers.
- The SEC previously delayed its decision on an XRP ETF application, which briefly reduced market confidence.
- The launch of CME Group’s XRP Futures ETF in May added momentum and showed strong institutional interest.
- Ripple received regulatory approval for its RLUSD stablecoin in Dubai, which boosted confidence in its global compliance.
According to fresh market data from Polymarket, the XRP ETF approval odds have surged to a new peak of 92%. This sharp increase reflects rising confidence in a 2025 approval amid strong legal and market momentum. XRP continues to gain traction from expanding ETF filings, exchange participation, and favorable global developments.
Rising XRP ETF Odds Linked to Regulatory Filings
Polymarket recorded a 20% rise in XRP ETF approval odds since early May, driven by broader shifts in regulatory sentiment. The surge follows new applications submitted by major asset managers, including Bitwise, Grayscale, and Franklin Templeton. These filings increase pressure on the SEC, creating expectations for a definitive decision within 2025.
The SEC previously delayed its response to the CoinShares XRP ETF application, briefly pulling approval odds down to 83%. However, the increased volume of ETF proposals has contributed to the renewed rise in projections. The upward trend signals growing market confidence that the SEC will move forward by year-end.
Alongside new filings, XRP’s market performance has added to the optimism surrounding a spot ETF launch. The coin saw a 6% daily price increase after flashing a buy signal in early June. Technical strength and improved liquidity are pushing market participants to anticipate approval sooner rather than later.
XRP Futures ETF Signals Strong Market Interest
The XRP Futures ETF from CME Group began trading in mid-May, showing high activity and signaling institutional interest. Strong launch metrics helped improve XRP’s ETF narrative, reinforcing the coin’s maturity for a spot product. This development supports broader arguments that the asset class is ready for more regulated exposure.
Meanwhile, Ripple secured regulatory clearance for its RLUSD stablecoin in Dubai following a strict licensing review by authorities. This approval has been viewed as validation of Ripple’s compliance strategy and its expanding regulatory footprint. Global recognition is improving XRP’s standing in ongoing U.S. regulatory discussions.
Crypto exchange Crypto.com also confirmed the development of its own XRP ETF product to join the expanding roster. The announcement followed earlier moves by Uphold and Flare Networks to launch a DeFi-focused XRP ETP offering. These combined efforts are lifting market momentum and enhancing expectations for a U.S. spot ETF.
Ripple SEC Case Nears Final Resolution
Ripple’s legal standoff with the SEC continues to advance toward resolution, which could impact XRP ETF approval timing. Judge Torres rejected a revised settlement due to a procedural flaw in the filing, temporarily slowing the process. However, both sides remain engaged in finalizing terms that meet court requirements.
Despite delays, legal analysts suggest that clarity from the court could strengthen the case for regulatory approval of an ETF. The resolution of the high-profile case would remove significant uncertainty that would limit SEC support for a spot fund. Ripple’s active legal engagement continues to shape expectations in the ETF approval debate.
