TLDR
- XRP rose nearly 8% in seven days after bouncing off the $1.03 low
- ETF net inflows dropped 55% in June, from $132M to $59M
- XRP Binance Scarcity Index hit its highest level in over two years at 0.77
- Binance XRP reserves fell 20% since November 2024, down to around 2.6 billion coins
- Key resistance sits at $1.20, with a bullish target of $1.50 and a bearish target of $0.80
XRP has climbed nearly 8% over the past seven days after finding a floor at $1.03. The token is now trading above $1.15, recovering a level that previously acted as support before June’s sell-off.
Trading volume jumped around 62% in a single 24-hour period, reaching $1.8 billion. That kind of volume spike often signals renewed market interest after a period of low activity.
The recovery comes after a rough June. XRP fell from above $1.55 in February to a low of around $1.00 to $1.04 by late June, its deepest holder losses in 12 years.
ETF inflows told a cautious story during that stretch. Net inflows to XRP-linked spot ETFs dropped from $132 million in May to $59 million in June, a 55% decline. Wall Street interest in the token appeared to cool even as prices fell.
Whales Step In as Exchange Supply Shrinks
On-chain data told a different story on the crypto-native side. Daily active addresses on the XRP Ledger spiked to their highest level since February, according to Santiment. That February period saw XRP trade between $1.47 and $1.54.
Meanwhile, the XRP Binance Scarcity Index reached 0.77 this week, its highest reading in more than two years, according to CryptoQuant analyst ArabxChain. The index measures how scarce XRP has become on Binance relative to earlier periods.
Binance XRP reserves have dropped around 20% since November 2024, falling from roughly 3.27 billion coins to about 2.6 billion. Reserves slid from around 2.8 billion in May to 2.6 billion in early July, the same window the scarcity index broke higher.
Analysts at ChartNerd flagged this setup on X, posting about XRP’s “3rd Retest” as a potential buying opportunity, calling it “a gift” for traders watching the chart closely.
The "3rd Retest" would be a gift 🎁 $XRP https://t.co/VaSUr4R1OR pic.twitter.com/kRbJ4Sc36Z
— 🇬🇧 ChartNerd 📊 (@ChartNerdTA) July 6, 2026
Short Squeeze Likely Drove the Initial Bounce
Derivatives data from Coinglass shows funding rates went deeply negative between June 26 and 28, right at the price lows. That level of short crowding set the stage for a squeeze.
The rebound to $1.13 lines up with short covering rather than confirmed new buying. Funding has since turned mildly positive, pointing to a cleaner positioning reset.
The nearest resistance sits at $1.20, the level that capped the mid-June bounce. A daily close above that would open up the $1.35–$1.40 zone, around 22% above current levels.
The RSI on the daily chart is near 55, leaving room to move higher before overbought conditions kick in.
The 200-day EMA sits at $1.50, which analysts cite as the bullish target if buying pressure holds. A break back below $1.00 would invalidate the current recovery structure.
XRP volume recently topped Bitcoin on South Korean exchange Upbit, a data point worth watching as traders assess whether demand is building organically.
