TLDR
- DHL’s stock fell 3% after giving a 2026 profit outlook that came in slightly below analyst expectations
- The company expects EBIT to exceed €6.2 billion in 2026, up from €6.1 billion in 2025
- Q4 operating profit dropped 1.3% to €1.83 billion, with freight forwarding earnings down 36%
- CEO Tobias Meyer said the forecast assumes no improvement in the global economic environment
- Declining freight rates in air and ocean, plus weak road freight demand in Europe, are weighing on results
DHL stock fell 3% on Thursday after the German logistics giant issued a 2026 profit outlook that leaned toward the cautious end of what analysts had expected.
The stock hit the bottom of Germany’s DAX blue-chip index by 0919 GMT.
DHL said it expects earnings before interest and taxes to top €6.2 billion ($7.2 billion) this year. That comes after the company posted an operating profit of €6.1 billion for the full year 2025.
The guidance came in slightly below the average analyst forecast from the company’s own consensus data.
CEO Tobias Meyer didn’t sugarcoat it. “Our forecast does not assume any improvement in the global economic environment,” he said in a statement.
Meyer cited geopolitical volatility and uncertainty that has already been visible in the first two months of the year as key factors shaping the outlook.
Freight Forwarding Drags on Q4
DHL’s fourth-quarter operating profit fell 1.3% to €1.83 billion. Analysts had expected roughly that figure.
The drag came largely from the freight forwarding division, where earnings collapsed 36% in the quarter.
Freight forwarding is a critical part of DHL’s global operations, coordinating the movement of goods across air, ocean, and road networks.
“In air and ocean freight, we see declining freight rates,” Meyer told investors on a call Thursday.
Road freight isn’t faring much better. “In road freight, we feel the weak economic situation in Europe, and especially in Germany,” he added.
European logistics operators have been dealing with a tough stretch — softer demand and trade disruptions linked to tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump have added pressure across the sector.
Middle East: A Different Story
Not everything is going against DHL. Meyer flagged that the company has historically done better than most during Middle East disruptions, not worse.
“We have a very well established road network in the Middle East which enables us to bring cargo to those airports that are open,” he said.
That’s a useful hedge as air and sea route disruptions from the ongoing Middle East conflict continue to affect global shipping.
Still, the broader environment remains a headwind. Shipping and logistics companies are facing mounting disruptions across air and sea routes globally.
DHL’s Q4 freight forwarding earnings falling 36% remains the sharpest data point from the company’s latest results.
The EBIT outlook of “exceeding €6.2 billion” for 2026 represents only modest growth over the €6.1 billion posted in 2025.
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