TLDR
- Palantir stock rose nearly 9% over five trading days, driven by rising Middle East tensions.
- The U.S. military used Palantir software to coordinate a 1,000-target strike in Iran.
- The Pentagon ended contracts with Anthropic’s AI over national security concerns, potentially boosting Palantir.
- Q4 revenue surged 70% to $1.41 billion; U.S. commercial revenue grew 137%.
- Wall Street is divided — price targets range from $46 (Burry) to $260 (Bank of America).
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has had a strong run over the past week, gaining close to 9% across five trading days. The move came as geopolitical events brought the company’s defense work squarely into focus.
Palantir Technologies Inc., PLTR
Reports emerged that U.S. military operations targeting around 1,000 sites in Iran were coordinated using Palantir’s software. That kind of real-world, high-stakes deployment is exactly the type of news that tends to move the stock.
Palantir already holds a $10 billion framework deal with the U.S. Army and a $448 million contract with the Navy. The Iran strike reports added fresh momentum to what was already a strong government business.
Then came an unexpected tailwind from inside the Pentagon. The Department of Defense told agencies to stop using AI models from Anthropic due to a dispute over national security safeguards. A six-month phase-out period has been mandated.
Rosenblatt, which lifted its price target on PLTR from $150 to $200 and reiterated a Buy rating on March 3, said the phase-out gives “ample time” to transition to LLMs backed by Palantir. The firm said Middle East tensions highlight the strength of Palantir’s solutions versus a standard off-the-shelf AI model.
Piper Sandler reaffirmed its Overweight rating and $230 price target on the same day, though it flagged near-term operational setbacks from the Anthropic fallout.
Revenue Growth Is Hard to Ignore
The business itself has been putting up eye-catching numbers. In its most recent quarterly report, revenue jumped 70% year-over-year to $1.41 billion. U.S. commercial revenue — businesses using Palantir’s AI tools — grew 137%.
The company is guiding for more than $7 billion in revenue for 2026, which would represent a 61% increase from the prior year. That figure is well above what most Wall Street analysts had penciled in.
Palantir’s “Rule of 40” score — a measure combining growth rate and profit margin — sits at 127%, which bulls say shows the company can scale while staying profitable.
But Valuation Is a Real Debate
Not everyone is buying in. Michael Burry, known for his “Big Short” trade, has suggested Palantir’s fair value could be as low as $46. The stock currently trades at over 180 times earnings, a multiple he describes as a bubble.
Goldman Sachs analyst Gabriela Borges also remains cautious, and institutional investors are still debating whether Palantir can reach its $7 billion revenue target without a pullback.
On the other hand, Citi Research’s Tyler Radke and Bank of America’s Mariana Perez Mora have set price targets of $255 and $260, respectively. They see Palantir as the primary beneficiary of increased military and corporate AI spending.
Based on 14 Buy ratings, four Holds, and two Sells over the last three months, PLTR carries a Moderate Buy consensus. The average 12-month price target sits at $191.76, implying around 22.6% upside from current levels.
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