TLDR
- Mizuho raised its price target on Circle Internet Group (CRCL) from $100 to $120, maintaining a Neutral rating.
- USDC volume surpassed Tether (USDT) for the first time since 2018, reaching a 64% share vs. a 30% historical average.
- Bernstein maintained an Outperform rating with a $190 price target, citing accelerating stablecoin adoption.
- CRCL stock is up roughly 49% year-to-date, with the stock trading around $114–$118 after more than doubling from a February low near $50.
- USDC’s market cap has grown 72% year-over-year to approximately $75–$78 billion, now present on 30 blockchain networks.
Circle Internet Group has been one of Wall Street’s better stories in early 2026. The stock is up about 49% year-to-date, outperforming a flat S&P 500 and a declining Nasdaq 100. That run has drawn fresh analyst attention and raised questions about how much further it can go.
Mizuho raised its price target on CRCL to $120 from $100 on Thursday, while holding onto a Neutral rating. The firm pointed to a sharp improvement in USDC’s market position as the main reason for the upgrade.
USDC volume has now passed Tether’s USDT for the first time since 2018, grabbing a 64% volume share. That compares to an average of about 30% between 2019 and 2025. It’s a meaningful shift in the stablecoin market.
Mizuho also lifted its 2027 estimates. The firm raised its projection for meaningful wallets from 10 million to 11.7 million, and bumped its USDC market cap estimate from $123 million to $139 million. EBITDA estimates rose to $1,119 million from $922 million.
The firm credited USDC activity trends and emerging use cases — including prediction markets like Polymarket and agentic commerce — as drivers behind the raised outlook.
Still, Mizuho isn’t without concerns. The analyst flagged that lower interest rates over the medium term and increasing competition remain overhangs on the stock. The firm says the near-term picture looks good, but those risks haven’t gone away.
Bernstein Sets $190 Target
Bernstein SocGen Group is more bullish. The firm reiterated its Outperform rating and kept a $190 price target in place. Based on where CRCL was trading around $118, that implies roughly 60% upside from current levels.
Bernstein’s case centers on the pace of stablecoin adoption, particularly in the U.S. following the GENIUS Act — legislation passed in 2025 that set a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, covering reserve backing, disclosures, and oversight.
That regulatory clarity has helped Circle build credibility with traditional financial institutions. BlackRock manages the Circle Reserve Fund, BNY Mellon serves as a primary custodian for USDC reserves, and Circle has drawn investment from both Fidelity and Goldman Sachs.
The stock has also decoupled from broader crypto market moves, which have been under pressure since late 2025 following a major leveraged liquidation event. CRCL bounced from a low near $50 in early February and has more than doubled since.
USDC Growth Fuels Analyst Upgrades
USDC’s market cap has grown 72% year-over-year to around $75–$78 billion. The stablecoin now operates across 30 blockchain networks and holds roughly one-quarter of the global stablecoin market.
Not all analysts are aligned on valuation. Needham cut its price target from $190 to $130, citing lower forecasted interest rates and headwinds to USDC supply growth tied to a broader crypto pullback. H.C. Wainwright holds a Neutral rating at $85, saying it wants to see sustained USDC market cap growth and clearer guidance on the Fed’s rate path through 2026 before revisiting.
InvestingPro data shows four analysts have recently revised earnings upward. The company is expected to turn profitable this year, though gross profit margins currently sit at 8.67%.
Four analysts tracking the stock have revised earnings upward in recent weeks, according to InvestingPro data.
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