TLDR
- Nebius (NBIS) jumped nearly 15% Monday after sealing a $27 billion AI infrastructure deal with Meta Platforms
- Meta committed $12 billion in dedicated capacity over five years, plus $15 billion in additional compute tied to NVIDIA Vera Rubin deployments
- Nebius then fell ~8.9% Tuesday after announcing a $3.75 billion convertible bond offering to fund its data-center buildout
- CrowdStrike (CRWD) partnered with Nebius to integrate its Falcon cybersecurity platform into Nebius AI Cloud
- Citi initiated coverage of NBIS with a Buy rating and a $169 price target, but flagged it as “High Risk”
Nebius Group has had a wild couple of days. The AI cloud company shot up nearly 15% on Monday, then gave back a chunk of those gains on Tuesday — all while landing a major cybersecurity partner and a fresh analyst rating.
The Monday rally was driven by a blockbuster deal with Meta Platforms. Nebius said it will deploy $12 billion in dedicated compute capacity to Meta over the next five years, with first delivery expected in early 2026. Meta also committed to buying an additional $15 billion in compute capacity tied to Nebius’s upcoming NVIDIA Vera Rubin deployments — bringing the total deal to $27 billion.
“We are pleased to expand our partnership with Meta as part of securing more large, long-term capacity contracts,” said Nebius CEO Arkady Volozh.
The Meta news came hot on the heels of another major announcement: a partnership with NVIDIA last week, which also came with a $2 billion investment from the chipmaker. Under that deal, the two companies will jointly develop next-generation hyperscale cloud infrastructure for the AI market.
Convertible Bond Offering Spooks Investors
The mood shifted Tuesday. Nebius announced plans to raise $3.75 billion through convertible notes — two series due in 2031 and 2033 — to fund its data-center expansion. The stock dropped around 8.5% to $118.60 as investors worried about potential dilution if bondholders convert to stock.
Nebius is targeting 5 gigawatts of AI power capacity by 2030, up from just 170 megawatts of active power last year. That would put it at roughly 5% of what Citi projects will be a 110-gigawatt global AI data-center market.
Despite the Tuesday drop, Citi initiated coverage of NBIS with a Buy rating and a $169 price target. Analyst Tyler Radke highlighted Nebius’s blend of data centers, in-house hardware, and early-stage cloud software as a differentiator in the neocloud space.
Radke did flag risks though. Nebius only began trading as an independent company in 2024 after spinning out of Yandex’s non-Russian business. Meta and Microsoft together account for around 40% of expected 2026 recurring revenue — a heavy concentration. Citi formally rates the stock as “High Risk.”
“NBIS is positioned to gain share within an AI compute market that itself is more than doubling every two years,” Radke said.
CrowdStrike Brings Falcon to Nebius AI Cloud
Meanwhile, CrowdStrike announced a partnership with Nebius to integrate its Falcon cybersecurity platform into Nebius AI Cloud. The deal lets Nebius customers run AI workloads while keeping their existing CrowdStrike security policies in place.
“Working with CrowdStrike means customers can run AI workloads on our full-stack platform without disrupting the security controls they already rely on,” said Nebius CRO Mark Boroditsky.
Morgan Stanley recently upgraded CrowdStrike from Equalweight to Overweight, pointing to platform strength and endpoint market opportunity. RBC Capital also maintained its Outperform rating following strong ARR growth and raised fiscal 2027 expectations.
CRWD stock was up 3.30% on the session.
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