TLDR
- NBIS jumped 8.9% in pre-market trading after Nasdaq announced its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100, effective June 22
- The stock is up 320% over the past 12 months and 135% year-to-date, with a market cap around $55 billion
- Key deals include a $17 billion agreement with Microsoft and a $27 billion compute deal with Meta
- Goldman Sachs raised its price target to $267; Citi holds a Street-high target of $287
- Morningstar rates NBIS just 1 star, estimating fair value at $120 — an 82% premium at current prices
Nebius Group (NBIS) is having a moment. The AI cloud provider surged 8.9% in pre-market trading on June 15 after Nasdaq confirmed it would join the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) effective June 22. The stock trades around $218, and analysts have price targets ranging from $235 to $287.
The Nasdaq-100 addition is expected to drive near-term buying pressure. Index-tracking funds and ETFs that follow the NDX are required to purchase newly added constituents, which typically boosts demand and trading volume. Nebius joins CoreWeave (CRWV), Rocket Lab (RKLB), Astera Labs (ALAB), and Teradyne (TER) in the upcoming rebalance.
NBIS is up 320% over the past 12 months and 135% year-to-date, giving it a market cap of roughly $55 billion — putting it on par with rival CoreWeave.
The company’s pivot from Russian tech holdco to AI cloud operator has been one of the more striking corporate transformations in recent memory. After Yandex halted trading in 2022 due to sanctions, the company divested its Russian assets, rebranded as Nebius, and relaunched with a new focus on GPU-powered data centers across Europe and the US.
Big Deals Driving the Story
What’s given Nebius real credibility is its client list. Microsoft signed a multiyear $17 billion revenue deal for GPU infrastructure in September 2025. In March 2026, Meta followed with a compute agreement worth up to $27 billion. Nvidia also put in a $2 billion equity investment. Most recently, the Situational Awareness fund — backed by former OpenAI employee Leopold Aschenbrenner — took a 5.6% stake.
Morningstar analyst Javier Correonero says the hyperscaler deals serve a dual purpose: they validate Nebius as an enterprise player and provide prepayments that help offset heavy capex.
Nebius reported Q1 revenue of $399 million, a 684% year-over-year increase. The company forecast a 2026 annual run rate of $7 billion to $9 billion.
Analysts Bullish, But Valuation Debate Lingers
Following the NDX news, Goldman Sachs raised its price target on NBIS from $234 to $267. Citi kept its Street-high target at $287, implying 23.5% upside. Bank of America analyst Tal Liani lifted his target to $280, citing stronger compute demand and an improving software stack.
On TipRanks, NBIS holds a Moderate Buy consensus — six Buys, four Holds — with an average price target of $235.
Morningstar is the notable outlier. Correonero rates NBIS at just 1 star, with a fair value estimate of $120 — recently raised from $85 — suggesting the stock is trading at an 82% premium. He flags high capex, potential equity dilution, and concentration risk with a handful of hyperscaler clients as key concerns. Nebius has outlined $20 billion to $25 billion in planned capital expenditure for 2026.
Correonero is clear it’s not a meme stock — “It is a serious data center operator with a solid and knowledgeable management team” — but adds it carries high beta risk.
Rob Thummel of Tortoise Capital, which invested in Nebius roughly six months ago, calls it the firm’s most direct AI infrastructure play in Europe, citing its vertically integrated model — owning around 75% of its data center footprint rather than leasing.
Nebius recently announced a £1.7 billion investment to expand UK data center capacity, backed by Nvidia infrastructure, and launched a Physical AI Living Lab for robotics startups.
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