TLDR
- MRVL stock closed at $310.28 on June 18, up 51.5% in June alone
- B. Riley raised its price target to $345; KeyBanc lifted its target to $385, maintaining Overweight
- Oppenheimer kept an Outperform rating with a $250 price target following strong Q1 results
- One analyst model puts fair market value as high as $462 per share based on FCF projections
- AI chip demand and data center bookings are driving analyst upgrades and upward revenue revisions
Marvell Technology (MRVL) has been on a tear. The stock closed at $310.28 on June 18, up 7.3% on the day and 51.5% for the month of June. That follows a close of $205.00 on May 29, meaning MRVL has added over $100 in just a few weeks.
Marvell Technology, Inc., MRVL
The catalyst? Strong Q1 earnings and a bullish outlook that caught Wall Street’s attention.
On May 28, B. Riley raised its price target to $240 from $205, keeping a Buy rating. The firm pointed to better-than-expected results, stronger guidance, and accelerating data center bookings. That target was later lifted again on June 12 to $345.
Oppenheimer’s Rick Schafer also raised his price target to $250 from $200 after Q1 results, keeping an Outperform rating. He cited strong demand for AI application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) and networking solutions, and called the company’s revenue targets conservative given the pace of AI infrastructure spending.
KeyBanc was the most bullish of the bunch. On June 18, the firm raised its target to $385 from $260, maintaining an Overweight rating. After hosting investor meetings with the company, KeyBanc said it came away more positive on the data center networking opportunity, particularly around silicon photonics and the Celestial AI acquisition.
What’s Driving the Optimism
Management has pointed to continued momentum with hyperscale customers and growing custom compute opportunities. The company’s own guidance includes potential EPS of over $6 in fiscal 2028 and $7.50 in fiscal 2029.
Analysts at KeyBanc view networking as increasingly durable compared to custom accelerators, adding that the Celestial AI deal could help MRVL stand out in the Scale Up networking segment.
One independent analyst at Barchart ran an FCF-based valuation using FY2028 revenue forecasts of $16.68 billion and a 27% operating cash flow margin. That model produced an FCF estimate of $4.05 billion, roughly double the $1.67 billion generated in the last twelve months.
Valuation and Price Target Range
Using a 1.0% FCF yield, that analyst model produces a fair market value of $405 billion, implying a price target of around $462. At a more conservative 1.5% FCF yield, the range average puts the target at roughly $385, or about 24% above the June 18 close.
It’s worth noting that the consensus on Wall Street is much lower. Yahoo Finance’s average price target sits at $238.75, Barchart’s consensus is $244.16, and AnaChart’s is $207.93. Most analysts are still playing catch-up with where the stock is trading.
The options market reflects the elevated volatility. MRVL puts expiring July 31 at the $287.50 strike were yielding 10.3% as of June 18, with a delta of 34%, suggesting the market sees a meaningful chance of a pullback from current levels.
MRVL is up over 76% from its May 19 close of $176.27.
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