TLDR
- Tesla stock fell 18% last week after Q2 operating profit came in at $400 million, far below Wall Street’s $1.7 billion estimate
- EPS of $0.33 missed the $0.50 consensus; revenue of $28.24 billion beat expectations of $26.42 billion
- Stock is down ~30% year-to-date and has now turned negative over the past 12 months
- Tesla has stopped producing the Model S and X to convert that capacity for robot production
- Analysts hold a consensus “Hold” rating with an average price target of $404.95
Tesla stock was trading at $317.50 in premarket Monday, up 1.4%, lifted by a broader market rally after tensions in Iran eased. Crude oil dropped nearly 5% to around $82 a barrel, giving stocks a boost across the board.
But the bigger story is what happened last week. Tesla dropped 18%, including a near-15% single-day fall on Thursday following its Q2 earnings report. Coming into Monday, the stock sat about 30% lower for the year and had just flipped negative over the past 12 months — the first time that’s happened in a while.
Tesla reported Q2 operating profit of around $400 million. Wall Street had expected closer to $1.7 billion. EPS came in at $0.33, missing the $0.50 consensus by $0.17. Revenue was $28.24 billion, up 25.5% year over year and ahead of the $26.42 billion estimate — but that wasn’t enough to offset the profit miss.
The company also reported negative free cash flow as capital spending climbed. Management outlined a large 2026 capex plan tied to AI investment, which rattled investors already watching margins compress.
Analyst Reactions
JPMorgan cut its price target from $475 to $445, keeping a “neutral” rating. Cantor Fitzgerald kept its “overweight” but trimmed its target from $510 to $485. Barclays moved its target up slightly, from $360 to $370, with an “equal weight” rating. Wells Fargo kept its “underweight” with a $130 target.
The consensus across 46 analysts sits at “Hold” with an average price target of $404.95 — well above where the stock is currently trading.
Tesla’s 52-week range runs from $297.82 to $498.83. The stock hit an all-time high of nearly $500 in December 2025 as AI optimism peaked. It had previously been below $300 ahead of the Austin robo-taxi launch in June 2025, then rallied hard into year-end.
Institutional Activity
Institutional investors still hold 66.2% of Tesla’s stock. Lombard Odier Asset Management Switzerland raised its stake by 9.2% in Q1, adding 11,316 shares to bring its total to 134,750, valued at around $50.1 million.
Vanguard remains the largest holder with over 258 million shares. Norges Bank opened a new position in Q4 2025 valued at approximately $17.1 billion.
On the insider side, Director Kathleen Wilson-Thompson sold 26,409 shares on April 30 at $378.11, reducing her stake by 35.3%. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 3,000 shares on May 13 at $450.00, a sale tied to tax withholding on vesting equity.
Tesla stopped producing the Model S and X, converting that factory capacity toward robot production in Fremont, California. ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood bought the post-earnings dip, one of the few high-profile bullish moves following the report.
Analysts expect Tesla to post full-year EPS of $1.33.
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