TLDR
- SPCX hit a new all-time low of $109.53 Monday, now down ~50% from its all-time high of $225.64
- Stock is off nearly 30% from its $150 IPO debut last month
- Earnings are due August 4, followed by a major lock-up expiry on August 6 allowing up to 20% of eligible stock to be sold
- Starship Flight 13 launched successfully, deploying 20 Starlink V3 satellites, though the Super Heavy booster missed its landing burn
- SpaceX has stopped taking new Falcon 9 bookings beyond 2028, making Starship’s success critical to the company’s future
SpaceX (SPCX) stock dropped another 4% in early trade Tuesday, adding to Monday’s decline that pushed the stock to a new all-time low of $109.53. It closed Monday at $113.50, down 1.4% on the day.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The stock has now lost nearly 30% from its $150 IPO price set just last month. From its all-time high of $225.64, the drop is closer to 50%. That wipeout in market value — over $1.2 trillion — is roughly equal to Tesla’s (TSLA) entire market cap.
Monday marked the 13th decline in the last 16 sessions for SPCX.
The selling comes despite a successful Starship test flight last Friday. The rocket, on its 13th test flight, deployed all 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites, relit an engine in space, and made what SpaceX described as its softest ocean splashdown to date.
“I’m a little over the moon right now,” SpaceX spokesperson Dan Huot said during the company’s livestream. “Lucky number 13.”
Not all of it went to plan. The Super Heavy booster failed to light all 13 engines on its landing burn and hit the Gulf of Mexico harder than intended. Neither stage was meant to be recovered on this flight.
CEO Elon Musk said SpaceX would attempt to catch the Starship upper stage using the “Mechazilla” tower arms on the next flight, assuming the mission data review comes back clean.
Earnings and Lock-Up Pressure Weighing on Sentiment
Investor anxiety is building ahead of SpaceX’s first-ever quarterly earnings report, scheduled for August 4. Two days later, on August 6, up to 911.5 million eligible stock units — roughly 20% of locked-up stock — become free to sell.
“I don’t think the lock-up on SpaceX will be as bad as everyone fears,” said Charles Moon, a tech and momentum specialist at Prosper Trading Academy. “But it’s not going to help the cause either.”
Options activity Monday reflected a mixed picture. Traders bought 106,000 calls against 77,000 puts by volume, but the bulk of the $442 million in premium was tied to puts. The most-traded contract by volume was a 330-strike call expiring Friday — priced at 10 cents with roughly a one-third of 1% chance of paying off.
SpaceX Bets Everything on Starship
SpaceX has made a hard pivot away from Falcon 9. It has stopped taking dedicated Falcon 9 bookings beyond 2028, halted Falcon 9 rideshare reservations, and wound down production of some non-reusable Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy components.
That puts enormous pressure on Starship to perform reliably and at scale. SpaceX is targeting dozens of Starship launches next year, hundreds in 2028, and thousands beyond that.
“As a trader, Wall Street is now punishing the AI stocks for capex,” Moon said.
Alex Morris, CEO of F/m Investments, acknowledged the near-term pain but remained constructive. “SpaceX doesn’t really have a natural competitor base. They have a good product with an intergalactic-sized moat, and more customers every day.”
The stock was trading around $107 Tuesday morning as of 9:58 AM EDT.
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