TLDR
- European natural gas futures rose over 2% on Monday, with Dutch contracts up 2.9% to around €56.90/MWh
- Iran and Oman have not reached a final deal on shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz
- Tehran insists the waterway will only fully reopen once additional U.S. conditions are met
- EU gas storage sits at roughly 56% capacity, lagging historical averages for mid-August
- Competition with Asian buyers for spot LNG cargoes is keeping supply balances tight
European natural gas prices bounced back on Monday as hopes for a quick resolution to Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions faded. Dutch front-month futures climbed 2.9% to around €56.90 per megawatt-hour. British wholesale contracts also rose 2.6% to 139.50 pence per therm.
The gains came after Iran signaled that a deal with Oman over new shipping channels in the strait was close, but then added conditions that pushed a full reopening further away. Tehran said the waterway would only reopen once extra U.S. demands were met. Iran also ruled out direct talks with Washington.
The back-and-forth left energy markets without the supply relief traders had been hoping for.
LNG Shipments Stay Blocked
The Strait of Hormuz is a key transit route for liquefied natural gas from the Middle East. With shipping still disrupted, cargoes from major exporters like Qatar are being delayed. That is putting pressure on global supply at a time when Europe needs to be filling its gas storage sites.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING: Trump ready to declare victory over Iran without a nuclear deal.
Trump is willing to walk away if Tehran fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz.
With midterms three months away and gas prices still elevated, Trump is seeking a victory narrative, per WSJ. https://t.co/MwotL6TPET pic.twitter.com/1MpCpUizim
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) August 9, 2026
EU storage caverns are about 56% full heading into mid-August. That is well below the average for this point in the year. Traders and analysts say that gap raises the risk heading into the winter heating season.
Warm summer weather across southern Europe has made things worse. Higher temperatures have pushed up demand for air conditioning, which means more natural gas is being burned for power generation instead of being stored.
Europe Competing With Asia for Cargoes
Europe is now competing directly with Asian buyers for available spot LNG cargoes on the open market. That competition is keeping prices elevated and making it harder for European utilities to build the storage buffer they need before winter.
Analysts say the market will stay sensitive to any news coming out of the Iran-Oman-U.S. negotiation process. Until a deal is done and the strait reopens fully, supply uncertainty is likely to remain.
Iran confirmed it was not ruling out a deal entirely, but said progress was slow. No timeline was given for when negotiations might conclude.
The Dutch gas contract had fallen last week before Monday’s recovery. The rebound puts it back above €56 per megawatt-hour, a level traders are watching closely.
For now, European energy markets are pricing in the idea that Hormuz disruptions will continue through at least the near term.
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