TLDR
- Nebius Group stock jumped as much as 7% today, hitting $241.20, after BNP Paribas Exane upgraded the stock to Outperform.
- BNP Paribas Exane raised its price target to $399 from $260, implying strong upside from Wednesday’s close.
- The upgrade follows Nebius’s move to raise GPU and CPU cloud pricing by roughly 17% to 25% starting October 1.
- Q2 revenue grew 454% year-over-year to $582.3 million, beating analyst estimates.
- The broader market traded lower today, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow all down, making the NBIS rally stand out.
Nebius Group stock climbed as much as 7% in Thursday trading, touching $241.20 after opening at $231.84. The move came after BNP Paribas Exane upgraded the AI infrastructure company from Neutral to Outperform.
The firm also lifted its price target to $399 from $260. That new target implies roughly 76% upside from Wednesday’s closing price of $226.61.
BNP Paribas Exane’s call adds a fresh bullish voice to what has otherwise been a split analyst picture on Nebius. The consensus rating currently sits at “Moderate Buy,” with an average price target of $241.80.
Why Analysts Are Warming Up
The upgrade follows news that Nebius plans to raise prices across its on-demand GPU cloud services starting October 1. That includes Nvidia H100, H200, B200 and B300 instances, which will see increases of roughly 17% to 21%.
AMD EPYC Genoa CPU rates are set to rise around 25%. Investors are reading this as a sign of tight AI compute capacity rather than a cost-saving move, since it’s the second round of hikes in a matter of months.
Nebius posted Q2 AI cloud revenue of $574.9 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin near 50%. Overall quarterly revenue came in at $582.3 million, up 454% from the same period last year and ahead of the $567.91 million analysts expected.
The company also reported a loss of $0.12 per share, beating the consensus estimate of a $0.67 loss. That compares with earnings of $2.38 per share a year earlier.
Today’s rally happened despite a weak broader market. The Nasdaq fell 0.5%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.4% and the Dow Jones dropped 0.4%, meaning the move in NBIS was driven entirely by company news.
Other neocloud names like CoreWeave and IREN have struggled in recent sessions over GPU pricing questions. That made Nebius’s jump today stand out even more against its peers.
Not Everyone Is Convinced
Not every analyst shares BNP Paribas Exane’s enthusiasm. Rothschild Redburn recently initiated coverage with a Sell rating, citing falling GPU rental prices and competition from hyperscalers as risks.
Investor Michael Burry has also disclosed expanded short positions in Nebius and other AI-related names. He’s pointed to negative free cash flow, heavy capital needs and customer concentration as concerns.
Insiders have sold roughly $43.6 million worth of Nebius stock over the past 90 days. That includes CRO Marc Boroditsky, who sold 7,000 shares on September 14 at an average price of $209.08.
Director John Wilson Iv Boynton also sold 5,296 shares on August 14 at an average price of $270.99. Both sales were executed under pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plans.
Nebius carries a market cap of $60.69 billion and a beta of 4.23, reflecting its volatility. The stock’s 50-day moving average sits at $213.92, while its 200-day average is $193.97.
Shares remain well below their 52-week high of $299.86. Institutional investors currently own about 21.90% of the company’s stock.
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