TLDR
- DZ Bank initiated coverage of SpaceX (SPCX) with a Sell rating and a $100 price target, implying roughly 25% downside.
- Despite the bearish call, 75% of Wall Street analysts rate SPCX a Buy, with an average price target of $220.20.
- SpaceX reported quarterly revenue of $7.81 billion, up 91.9% year over year, beating estimates.
- A second lockup expiration released 319 million additional shares into the market, pushing the stock below its $135 IPO price.
- Elon Musk delayed a Starship upper-stage catch attempt by several months, disappointing investors.
SpaceX (SPCX) stock was trading around $131.82 on Friday, down 1.6% on the day, after briefly rising 1.5% in premarket trading following a new Sell rating from DZ Bank analyst Markus Leistner.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Leistner set a price target of $100, which would represent a drop of roughly 25% from SpaceX’s current price. The call is one of the more bearish on Wall Street, where 75% of analysts covering SPCX rate it a Buy. The average price target across analysts sits at around $220.20.
The stock has had a rough week. Coming into Friday, SPCX had fallen 4.3% over five days, leaving it just slightly below its $135 IPO price. The 52-week range runs from $104.83 to $225.64.
DZ Bank declined to share the full research report publicly, citing U.S. regulatory restrictions. But the core of the bearish argument centers on cash. SpaceX is expected to spend around $800 billion in total capital expenditures by the end of the decade, much of it going toward AI infrastructure.
The company currently runs about 1.4 gigawatts of compute across two data centers and wants to reach 10 gigawatts by end of 2027. Long-term targets are measured in hundreds of gigawatts. Building that out will require SpaceX to raise significant amounts of debt and equity capital.
That spending comes with a potential payoff. A gigawatt of AI compute can rent for up to $50 billion annually. Wall Street bulls point to that revenue opportunity as justification for the stock’s valuation.
Revenue Growth Backs the Bull Case
SpaceX posted quarterly revenue of $7.81 billion in its most recent earnings report, up 91.9% year over year. The company reported a loss of $0.09 per share, which beat analyst expectations of a $0.26 loss. Full-year 2026 revenue is expected to reach around $44 billion, with 2027 projected to top $100 billion.
Other analysts are not backing away. Argus recently upgraded SPCX from Hold to Buy with a $160 target. William Blair reiterated a Buy, citing SpaceX’s reusability advantage and AI revenue potential. Stifel Nicolaus has a $190 target. Piper Sandler holds a Neutral rating with a $140 target after trimming its previous forecast.
Lockup Expiry and Starship Delay Add Pressure
Thursday’s 4.1% drop came after 319 million shares held by insiders and early investors became eligible to trade. More lockup expirations are scheduled through 2027, which could continue to weigh on the stock.
Musk also confirmed that SpaceX will not attempt to catch the returning Starship upper stage with the launch tower for several more months. Investors had expected a catch attempt in August. Starship’s full reusability is seen as key to reducing the cost of reaching orbit, which underpins the company’s long-term economics.
SpaceX completed its 100th launch of 2026 this week and expanded the Starlink constellation past 11,000 satellites.
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