TLDR
- Kalshi issued its first ever lifetime trading ban against former U.S. Representative George Santos
- Santos made $17,839.57 by trading contracts tied to his own State of the Union attendance
- He posted misleading statements on social media to move contract prices in his favor
- Kalshi fined him $71,356, four times his profits, and he must not access the platform directly or through others
- The CFTC separately ordered Santos to pay over $35,000 and banned him from federally registered trading venues for three years
Prediction market platform Kalshi has permanently banned former U.S. Representative George Santos following a manipulation investigation tied to contracts based on his attendance at President Donald Trump’s 2026 State of the Union address.
Kalshi Issues First-Ever Lifetime Trading Ban to Former U.S. Rep. George Santos for Market Manipulation
Kalshi has permanently banned former U.S. Representative George Santos from trading on the platform and fined him more than $70,000, marking its first lifetime trading ban.… pic.twitter.com/yhxKDKWNJB
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) August 31, 2026
Kalshi found that Santos earned $17,839.57 by trading contracts he had direct control over. As the person whose attendance determined the outcome, he was prohibited from trading those contracts under Kalshi rules.
Santos opened his Kalshi account on February 11 and deposited around $7,000. He used the funds entirely to trade on whether he would attend the address.
How Santos Moved the Market
Between February 12 and 22, Santos bought 30,874 “Yes” contracts for $6,695.94. While holding that position, he posted on social media asking followers whether he should wear a suit or a bedazzled outfit to the event.
The “Yes” contract price jumped from around $0.15 to $0.70 following the post. Santos then sold his full position, banking $3,448.43 in profit.
Later on February 22, his flight to Washington was canceled. He booked a train and then posted the next morning suggesting bad weather might prevent his attendance. The “Yes” contract dropped from $0.63 to $0.28.
On the evening of February 23, Santos posted a video saying he would attend from the House gallery. The contract climbed from $0.40 to $0.70. About 40 minutes later, Santos started buying “No” contracts, eventually acquiring 23,855 for $8,650.66.
His train was also canceled, but he later told another user he was still going. He had not purchased another ticket.
The Trades Unravel
On February 24, Santos posted that he was watching the address on an airport television. The “Yes” contract fell from $0.73 to $0.02, increasing the value of his “No” position.
He closed the “No” trade on February 25 for a profit of $14,390.57. Combined with his earlier gain, the two trades produced the total amount later cited in the disciplinary action.
Kalshi fined Santos $71,356, exactly four times his profits. The ban prevents him from accessing the platform directly or through any other person or account.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued a separate order on July 31. It required Santos to pay $17,569.98 in disgorged profits, a $17,500 civil penalty, and a three-year ban from all CFTC-registered trading venues. Santos consented without admitting wrongdoing.
Kalshi said Santos failed to cooperate with its internal investigation, which led to the permanent rather than temporary ban.
The platform said it conducted more than 150 investigations in the first quarter of 2026, blocked over 100 suspected insider-trading attempts, and referred 20 cases to law enforcement.
A reported Justice Department inquiry into Santos has not received a publicly announced resolution.
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