TLDR
- Goldman Sachs cut its Q3 Tesla delivery forecast to 435,000 vehicles, down from 490,000, citing weak demand in China, the US and Europe.
- The revised Q3 estimate is below Wall Street consensus of 456,000 deliveries.
- Tesla stock trades at $356.58, down 20% year-to-date, with a market cap of $1.41 trillion.
- Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares on September 8 at $360.13 each, a 9.12% reduction in his position.
- The analyst consensus on Tesla is “Hold” with an average price target of $414.68.
Tesla (TSLA) is under fresh pressure after Goldman Sachs cut its third-quarter delivery forecast, adding to a rough year for the electric vehicle maker.
Goldman analyst Mark Delaney trimmed his Q3 delivery estimate to 435,000 vehicles from 490,000. He kept a Neutral rating and a $360 price target. The stock currently trades at $356.58.
The revised estimate comes in below the Wall Street consensus of 456,000 deliveries, tracked by Visible Alpha. Fifteen analysts have also revised earnings estimates lower for the upcoming period.
Goldman pointed to weaker monthly and weekly sales data from China, the US and Europe as the main driver behind the cut. Markets supplied via exports from China, including Southeast Asia, South America and Australia, are holding up better and will partly offset the weakness.
Goldman also cut its Q4 forecast to 475,000 deliveries from 515,000. That still sits above the consensus estimate of 462,000.
Tesla stock is down 20% year-to-date. The stock hit a 12-month low of $297.38 and a high of $498.83 over the same period.
CFO Sells Stock
Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares on September 8 at an average price of $360.13, totalling $938,498. The sale was linked to tax obligations on vesting equity awards. He now holds 25,972 shares.
Institutional investors own 66.2% of Tesla. Waverly Advisors cut its Tesla position by 12.1% in Q2, selling 7,973 shares and retaining 58,174 shares worth around $24.5 million.
On the other side, Nykredit A/S opened a new position worth roughly $262 million, and Range Advisory boosted its stake by 91.9%.
Earnings Miss and Mixed Analyst Views
Tesla’s most recent quarterly results showed revenue of $28.24 billion, up 25.5% year over year, beating the $26.42 billion estimate. But adjusted EPS of $0.33 missed the $0.50 consensus by a wide margin.
Analyst views are split. Stifel has a Buy rating with a $491 price target. Evercore upgraded Tesla to Outperform in June. Wells Fargo is more cautious, keeping an Underweight rating with a $130 target. GLJ Research holds a Sell rating.
The overall consensus sits at Hold, with 22 Buys, 18 Holds and five Sells. The average price target is $414.68.
On the regulatory front, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is investigating whether Tesla properly self-certified its steering-wheel-free Cybercab. The agency wants answers by September 30.
Goldman still sees potential support for demand in Q4 from the Model Y Long Range ramp in the US and Europe and Full Self-Driving technology. Analysts forecast Tesla will post $0.88 earnings per share for the full fiscal year.
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