TLDR
- CAVA stock fell 8.93% on Tuesday after a Placer report showed U.S. dining visits dropped 2.4% year over year in August.
- The stock is trading up around 1% in Wednesday’s premarket, seen as a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal.
- CAVA trades 30.1% below its 200-day moving average and formed a death cross in August.
- Seaport Global initiated coverage Wednesday with a Buy rating and a $58 price target.
- The analyst consensus remains Buy with an average price target of $88.29.
CAVA stock dropped 8.93% on Tuesday, closing near $49.99, after a Placer.ai report flagged a broad slowdown in U.S. restaurant traffic. The stock was trading up about 1.11% at $50.54 in Wednesday’s premarket, though analysts caution that does not signal a reversal.
The Placer report showed dining-chain visits fell 2.4% year over year in August. Retail visits, by contrast, rose 0.3%, though that figure also slowed from 1.7% growth in July.
Part of the calendar shift played a role. Labor Day fell on September 7 this year versus September 1 in 2025, pushing the holiday weekend out of August and likely dragging down foot traffic comparisons.
Consumers are also feeling the pinch at restaurants. Food-away-from-home prices rose 3.4% year over year in August, compared to a 2.2% rise for groceries. Consumer sentiment dipped from July as well.
Technical Picture Remains Weak
CAVA’s chart tells a rough story. The stock sits 20.5% below its 20-day simple moving average, 22.6% below its 50-day SMA, and 30.1% below its 200-day SMA.
The 20-day SMA is also trading below the 50-day SMA, which reinforces the near-term bearish setup. The stock formed a death cross in August when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA, adding to the longer-term technical pressure.
One potential bright spot: the RSI sits at 26, which is in oversold territory. Readings below 30 can set up short-term bounces, though they don’t confirm a trend change on their own. Key resistance sits near $56, with support around $45.50.
Seaport Initiates With Buy
Despite the selloff, Seaport Global Securities kicked off coverage on Wednesday with a Buy rating and a $58 price target, closely in line with InvestingPro’s fair value estimate of $58.25.
Seaport pointed to CAVA’s position as the only scaled brand in the Mediterranean fast casual space. With around 500 locations, brand awareness remains well below the 90%-plus levels seen at major national chains, leaving room to grow.
New units are opening above 100% productivity, and recent restaurants are generating same-store sales growth faster than the broader system once they enter the comp base.
The firm’s $58 target is based on roughly 29 times fiscal 2027 estimated EBITDA and is backed by a 10-year discounted cash flow analysis.
Other analysts are more divided. DA Davidson kept a Neutral rating and cut its target to $75 after flagging Cyclospora concerns. Guggenheim held its Buy but lowered its target to $95. RBC Capital raised its target to $95 following CAVA’s second-quarter results, which showed same-store sales growth of 9% and adjusted EBITDA of around $55 million, ahead of the $53 million consensus.
The overall analyst consensus remains Buy, with an average price target of $88.29. CAVA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 89.3.
KeyBanc adjusted its price target to $95 from $110, while maintaining an Overweight rating. StoneX reiterated a Buy with a $110 target after speaking with CAVA’s CEO and CFO.
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