TLDR
- Cathie Wood says SpaceX’s $1.75 trillion IPO will look cheap in hindsight, citing Starship’s revenue potential
- ARK Invest estimates each Starship launch could add ~$1 billion in annual Starlink revenue
- Wood projects $10 trillion in annual Starship revenue by 2030 at 10,000 flights per year
- Elon Musk replied to Wood’s post saying reaching the 10,000-flight target is “not impossible”
- SPCX priced at $135 in June, hit a high of $225.64, fell to ~$104.83, and now trades around $142-$152
Cathie Wood went on X this week to make a bold case for SpaceX stock, calling its $1.75 trillion IPO a “deep value opportunity” based on what she sees as massive untapped revenue from Starship launches.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Her argument is rooted in math from ARK Invest researcher Sam Korus. He estimates Starlink earns roughly $19 million per year for every terabit per second of network capacity. A single Starship launch could deploy up to 60 next-generation V3 satellites, adding around 61 terabits per second of capacity. That works out to roughly $1 billion in recurring annual revenue per flight.
Wood then multiplied that by Musk’s stated goal of 10,000 Starship flights per year, arriving at $10 trillion in potential annual revenue by 2030. Elon Musk replied directly to her post with three words: “It’s not impossible.”
SPCX stock priced at $135 per share in June, opened its first trading day at $150, and climbed to a high of $225.64. It then dropped below its IPO price to a low of around $104.83 before recovering. As of after-hours trading Tuesday, SPCX was down 0.58% at $142.66.
Key Assumptions Behind the Numbers
The $10 trillion figure comes with caveats. Korus himself noted that revenue per terabit per second will likely decline as capacity expands. ARK’s own data backs this up: Starlink revenue per terabit per second already dropped from $23 million in 2024 to $19 million in 2025.
Wood’s projection also assumes all 10,000 annual flights would deploy Starlink hardware. Musk has separately pitched the same flight cadence for point-to-point passenger transport, meaning not every launch would necessarily add Starlink capacity.
Reaching 10,000 flights per year would also require more than 27 successful launches every day. Starship has completed just two flights since SpaceX went public in June, and both were suborbital.
What’s Actually Coming Next
SpaceX is targeting Starship Flight 14 for September 22, pending regulatory approval. This would be Starship’s first orbital flight and its first “revenue-generating flight,” according to CFO Bret Johnsen, as it would carry production V3 satellites.
Musk confirmed this week that V3 constellation deployment begins this month. He says V3 will eventually deliver more than 100 times the bandwidth of the current Starlink network of roughly 11,000 satellites.
For context, SpaceX generated $18.67 billion in revenue in 2025. Musk himself said in June the company “might be able to reach approximately $1T revenue in 2030,” well below Wood’s $10 trillion projection.
Wall Street currently holds a Moderate Buy consensus on SPCX, with 26 Buys, 6 Holds, and 2 Sells. The average price target sits at $232.07, implying around 62% upside from current levels.
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