TLDR
- Arthur Hayes repeats his call for Bitcoin to reach $1 million by 2030.
- He points to late 2027 and early 2028 as the key stretch for a major rally.
- His theory rests on stress building up in AI infrastructure debt.
- Apollo estimates the AI buildout could need over $2 trillion in added investment-grade debt.
- US insurance regulators have added new rules for private credit reporting starting at year-end 2026.
Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer at Maelstrom, has again said Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030. He now says the strongest part of that rally could arrive in late 2027 or early 2028.
ARTHUR HAYES SEES BITCOIN AT $1 MILLION BY 2030
Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030, with its strongest rally in late 2027 or early 2028.
His thesis: an AI infrastructure bubble bursts as data-center revenues fail to justify massive…
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) September 30, 2026
Hayes shared this outlook as Bitcoin traded near $83,700, close to flat on the day. The cryptocurrency has struggled to push past resistance near $85,000 in recent sessions.
His forecast is tied to the growth of artificial intelligence infrastructure. Billions of dollars have gone into data centers and computing hardware over the past few years.
Why Hayes Links AI Debt to Bitcoin
Hayes believes this spending wave could eventually face a correction. He argues that if data centers cannot earn enough revenue, the companies and lenders behind them could run into trouble.
Arthur Hayes Says Any AI Bust Could End in Money Printing, Boosting Bitcoin
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argued in his latest essay, Safety First, that moves by U.S. AI labs including Anthropic and OpenAI to slow AGI development on safety grounds may instead reflect… pic.twitter.com/LEBlXJPLWO
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) September 22, 2026
He has described the situation as a credit story, comparing it to the 2008 financial crisis rather than an earnings issue like the dot-com crash in 2000. In his view, banks, insurers, and private lenders could all be exposed.
Part of the risk comes from a mismatch. AI hardware ages fast, but the loans used to pay for it often last much longer.
Hayes expects this mismatch to create pressure around 2027 and 2028, as equipment loses value while repayment schedules continue. He expects growth in AI spending to slow in the second half of 2027, with the slowdown becoming more visible in 2028.
If stress builds, Hayes thinks governments and central banks could respond by adding liquidity to the financial system. He has suggested two options: the government buying computing capacity directly, or stepping in to help insurers facing losses on AI-linked debt.
Hayes argues that this kind of liquidity injection would end up supporting Bitcoin prices. As of his most recent comments, neither option has been put into action by US authorities.
What the Numbers Show So Far
Research from Apollo backs up parts of this picture. Chief economist Torsten Slok estimated the AI buildout could require more than $2 trillion in additional investment-grade debt.
Apollo expects public bond markets to cover less than $1 trillion of that amount through 2030. The rest, over $1 trillion, would likely come from private lending, equipment financing, and other non-public debt structures.
Data through July already showed AI-related borrowing made up close to 40% of longer-term investment-grade bond supply. That is a large share for a single sector.
Separately, the National Association of Insurance Commissioners has raised concerns about private credit markets. It pointed to valuation questions and withdrawal requests at some retail credit funds.
New reporting rules adopted in 2025 require private rating reports within 90 days of changes. Further changes to how insurers report private credit holdings take effect at year end 2026.
Hayes has also given a shorter-term figure, earlier placing Bitcoin at roughly $125,000 by the end of 2026. That number was lowered from an even higher earlier estimate.
Meanwhile, US inflation data released recently came in cooler than expected. Markets currently show a 62% chance the Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at its next meeting.
Traders are watching whether Bitcoin can clear resistance near $85,000 and $90,000 in the near term.
