TLDR
- Galaxy Research says the bitcoin bear market ended in June and advises investors to buy and hold.
- Bitcoin trades near $80,000, about 36% below its October 2025 record of around $126,000.
- Bitcoin closed above its 50-week moving average for five straight weeks through Oct. 18.
- Older wallets are selling less, moving 34,000 BTC a month in 2026, down from 47,000 in 2025.
- Galaxy says U.S. debt of $40.44 trillion strengthens bitcoin’s case as a hedge against currency debasement.
Galaxy Research says the bitcoin bear market is over. The firm told investors in a report on Monday that now is an attractive time to buy and hold the cryptocurrency.
Galaxy Digital: “Bitcoin bottom is in. Time to BUY and HOLD.”
• Debasement case stronger: betting against stocks and hard assets means betting on fiat.
• Sellers mostly gone: basis traders and macro tourists cut exposure by over half. pic.twitter.com/wZ0aP3tbw5
— Bitcoin Archive (@BitcoinArchive) October 26, 2026
Galaxy Digital shares rose about 6.8% on the day, according to market data. Bitcoin traded near $80,000 and fell nearly 2% to $79,800 early on Oct. 26 before recovering.
Price action and technical signals
Bitcoin remains about 35% to 36% below its October 2025 record of around $126,000. It has rebounded from a low of $58,000 on June 30.
Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy, said bitcoin closed above its 50-week moving average for five straight weeks through Oct. 18. It had spent 44 straight weeks below that level before that.
Bitcoin also tested its 200-week moving average during the drop to the June low. Its worst weekly close was 4.7% below that level.
Thorn wrote that the firm believes the bottom is in. He said selling pressure has diminished, the debasement case has strengthened and the crowd has left.
Older wallets slow their selling
Galaxy pointed to a slowdown in movement among older wallets. Bitcoin held in wallets untouched for at least five years moved at an average of 34,000 BTC a month in 2026.
That compares with 47,000 BTC a month in 2025 and 67,000 BTC a month in 2024. About 1.11 million BTC in this age group has moved since October 2024.
Exchange-traded funds and public treasury companies absorbed much of that supply, according to the report.
The firm also said rising U.S. debt and deficits support bitcoin as a hedge against currency debasement. Federal debt stands at $40.44 trillion, and borrowing tied to artificial intelligence is adding to credit expansion.
Thorn warned the bullish view could be tested. A weekly close below the 50-week moving average of $76,540 that is not reversed within a month would challenge it.
The report also addressed risks from artificial intelligence, including AI-assisted hacking. Galaxy said recent crypto thefts targeted exchanges, vendors, devices or users, not Bitcoin’s underlying protocol.
The firm added that AI does not weaken Bitcoin’s SHA-256 hash function or its signature scheme. On quantum computing, Galaxy said no computer able to break Bitcoin’s cryptography exists today.
Galaxy pointed to ongoing work on quantum-resistant upgrades and industry funding to address that risk. The report landed as bitcoin slipped below the $80,000 support level on Monday and crypto markets stayed volatile.
