TLDR
- Oil fell more than 3% on Monday as hopes for U.S.-Iran diplomacy eased supply fears.
- January Brent traded near $110 a barrel and WTI near $100 after a nearly 15% rally in October.
- Iranian and Qatari officials held a third day of talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
- OPEC+ kept December output targets unchanged and will meet again Nov. 29.
- Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and WTI forecasts but still expects elevated supply risks.
Oil prices fell more than 3% on Monday as hopes for diplomacy in the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran eased fears of supply disruptions. The drop followed a strong rally in October.
January Brent futures fell about 3.1% to $109.90 a barrel in early trading. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 3.5% to $100.47.
Both benchmarks gained nearly 15% in October. Brent reached its highest level in six months.
Diplomacy takes center stage
President Donald Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday that he preferred to give diplomacy more time, Axios reported. Netanyahu had pressed for U.S. strikes to restart soon after the midterm elections.
BREAKING: US oil prices drop below $100/barrel after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says that President Trump prefers not to use military force and would like to resolve the Iran War “diplomatically.” pic.twitter.com/DsjSh8Xwtw
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 2, 2026
Iranian and Qatari officials held a third straight day of talks. Qatar is trying to mediate a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday the talks had not produced an agreement. An Iranian delegation led by a deputy foreign minister traveled to Qatar, and no direct meeting with U.S. officials was planned.
Tehran has said it remains open to diplomacy while preparing to defend itself. Attacks on tankers and limits on Iranian oil exports have raised shipping and insurance costs.
The risk of renewed fighting remains. The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. told several Gulf Arab countries to prepare for a possible short, intense campaign after Tuesday’s midterm elections. Trump has not made a final decision.
Supply and forecasts
Seven OPEC+ producers agreed Sunday to keep December output targets unchanged. The group will meet again Nov. 29 to review January levels.
Exporters are sending more oil around the Strait of Hormuz. Loadings at Fujairah and Omani terminals are 36% above prewar levels, while Red Sea shipments are 8% higher, according to Kpler.
OPEC’s oil output was still more than 3 million barrels a day below prewar levels in September. That was despite an increase in production.
Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 Brent forecast to $105 a barrel from $90. Its WTI forecast rose to $94 from $81.
The bank also lifted its 2027 average projections to $88 for Brent and $78 for WTI. It expects supply risks to stay elevated.
Goldman allowed for 1 million barrels per day of possible disruptions in 2027. It cited conflicts in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine, plus possible problems in Kazakhstan and parts of Africa.
Security risks also continued over the weekend. A Saudi-led coalition said it targeted resources used by Yemen’s Houthi militants for missile and drone programs, and Saudi air defenses destroyed a Houthi ballistic missile.
In the latest trading, Brent was down about 3.96% at $108.94 a barrel, while WTI was down about 4.08%.
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