TLDR
- Nvidia stock fell 10% to $204.64 in October after a record close of $239.24.
- ICAP Technical Analysis says a key weekly support line was “decisively broken” last week.
- The next level down could be $185.94, with a 61.8% Fibonacci drop at $92.99.
- Nvidia was up 1.6% to $207.98 ahead of the open Monday.
- Analysts keep a “Buy” consensus with a $321.47 average price target.
Nvidia (NVDA) stock is up 1.6% to $207.98 ahead of the open Monday. That follows a rough October for the chipmaker.
The stock fell 10% to $204.64 last month. It hit a record close of $239.24 early in the month.
Shortly after that high, ICAP Technical Analysis warned of a “big, bearish, rising wedge” on the weekly chart. The firm’s latest update is not friendly to bulls.
Chief technical strategist Walter Zimmerman said in a Sunday note that a key weekly support line was “decisively broken last week.” That is the line traders had been watching for a floor.
What the Chart Says
Zimmerman sees the next step down at $185.94. The Fibonacci retracement, a 61.8% drop, would land at $92.99.
“For those who follow Nvidia as if it were a cult, that may seem absurdly low,” he said. He noted Nvidia last traded near $93 on April 7, 2025, which is only 19 months ago.
“What has changed in the last 19 months? Valuations went to the outer solar system,” Zimmerman added. That is a blunt way to put it.
There is one hope left for the bulls. The stock needs a sustained reversal higher before it reaches $197.73.
Technical analysis is only one part of the story and leaves out fundamentals. Fears over the AI boom have also weighed on tech stocks.
Nvidia’s 50-day moving average sits at $221.74, while its 200-day average is $204.24. The 12-month range runs from $164.27 to $243.37.
The company’s last earnings report came on August 26. Revenue rose 105.9% year over year to $96.22 billion, topping the $92.27 billion estimate.
Earnings per share came in at $2.22, beating the $2.09 consensus. Nvidia also announced a $150 billion buyback on September 28, covering up to 2.8% of its stock.
Institutions and Insiders
Central Bank & Trust Co. cut its Nvidia stake by 2.2% in the third quarter. It sold 7,941 shares and still holds 359,128, worth about $82 million.
Nvidia remains that fund’s largest holding at 12.4% of its portfolio. Institutional investors own 65.27% of the company.
Insiders sold 1.77 million shares worth about $399.5 million over the last quarter. That includes sales by CFO Colette Kress and EVP Timothy Teter under pre-arranged trading plans.
Analyst ratings are still strong. Goldman Sachs reaffirmed a “buy” on October 21, while Wall Street Zen cut its rating from “strong-buy” to “buy” on October 24.
Five analysts rate the stock Strong Buy, 49 rate it Buy, and one rates it Hold. The consensus price target is $321.47.
Nvidia opened at $204.64 on Monday, per MarketBeat, giving it a market value of $4.93 trillion.
Nvidia was down 4.22% in the most recent session cited by Barron’s-style coverage, before the premarket bounce.
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