TLDR
- Arthur Hayes declared a Bitcoin bull market has begun, linking it to U.S. Treasury bond buyback expansion
- The Treasury doubled long-end buyback caps from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, starting September 9
- Bitcoin rose from below $65,000 to above $80,000 following the Treasury announcement on August 19
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $517 million in net inflows on August 19, their strongest day since early May
- Hayes said his fund Maelstrom moved to maximum risk exposure, with positions in Bitcoin, Ether, Ethena and Ether.fi
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes declared a new Bitcoin bull market has begun, pointing to a U.S. Treasury decision to expand bond buybacks as the key driver of fresh dollar liquidity.
Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin Bull Market Is Underway as Treasury Buybacks Boost Liquidity
BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes argued in his latest essay, Same Same But Different, that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s expansion of longer-dated Treasury buybacks… pic.twitter.com/qcbIsNXaql
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) August 25, 2026
Hayes made the argument in an essay titled Same Same But Different, published on August 25. He connected Bitcoin’s recent price rally to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s move to increase purchases of longer-dated government securities.
Treasury Doubles Long-End Buyback Limits
The U.S. Treasury confirmed on August 19 that it would at least double the maximum size of certain long-end buybacks. The cap rises from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, running from September 9 through November 4.
The Treasury describes the program as a way to improve liquidity in older securities and manage its cash position. Officials have not described it as monetary stimulus.
Hayes sees it differently. He argued that buying older, longer-dated bonds pushes their prices up and pulls yields down. Lower yields, in his view, make risk assets like Bitcoin more attractive.
He drew a comparison to former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s increased use of Treasury bills in late 2023, which Hayes believes helped shift money-market balances into marketable securities.
Bitcoin Rises Above $80,000
Bitcoin climbed from below $65,000 before the announcement to above $80,000 by August 25. The cryptocurrency hit an intraday high above $81,000, its strongest weekly advance in months.
Several factors contributed to the move. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $517 million in net inflows on August 19. Derivatives liquidations accelerated the push above $71,000. A weaker U.S. dollar also played a role.
The 10-year Treasury yield dipped toward 4.65% following the news, while the 30-year moved closer to 5.20%. Both yields later recovered part of that decline.
No purchases under the enlarged limits had taken place when Hayes published his essay. The new schedule starts September 9.
Treasury General Account and Maelstrom’s Position
Hayes also pointed to the Treasury General Account, which held roughly $940 billion. Bessent indicated some of that cash could be used for buybacks without changing scheduled debt auctions. No formal plan to deploy the full balance has been announced.
Hayes said Maelstrom moved to maximum risk, holding positions in Bitcoin, Ether, Ethena and Ether.fi. He did not disclose position sizes.
He also cautioned that steep corrections remain possible even in a bull market.
The New York Fed is separately conducting around $10 billion in reserve-management purchases this month. The Fed says this is to maintain banking reserves and is not connected to Treasury’s buyback program.
The next confirmed milestone is September 9, when the larger buyback limits take effect. Treasury will reassess purchase sizes at its next quarterly refunding on November 4.
