TLDR
- ASML raised 2026 sales guidance to €44 billion to €45 billion, its third increase this year.
- The ADR was up 1.6% at $1,744.67 in premarket trading, while the Amsterdam listing gained 1.75% to €1,536.
- Q3 net profit of €4.96 billion beat the €4.13 billion analysts expected.
- The CEO said planned 2027 and 2028 supply will not fully meet demand.
- ASML’s CFO opposes the proposed Match Act, which would bar DUV sales to China.
ASML (ASML) stock rose on Wednesday after the chipmaker raised its 2026 sales forecast. The ADR traded at $1,744.67 in premarket, up 1.6%, while the Amsterdam listing gained 1.75% to €1,536.
The company now expects 2026 net sales of €44 billion to €45 billion. That is up from its earlier range of €43 billion to €45 billion.
It is the third guidance increase this year. ASML expects a full-year gross margin of around 56%.
Third-quarter net sales came in at €11.66 billion, with net income of €4.96 billion. Analysts had expected net income of €4.13 billion on revenue of €11.63 billion.
Demand Looks Strong Into 2029
CEO Christophe Fouquet said customers keep raising their equipment demand forecasts. He pointed to the size and length of AI-related investments.
$ASML Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Net Sales: €11,662M (Est. €11.56B) 🟢
🔹 EPS: €12.95 (Est. €10.60) 🟢
🔹 Gross Margin: 57.5% (Est. 54.8%) 🟢
🔹 Net Income: €5.0B (Est. €4.06B) 🟢FY26 Guide:
🔹 Net Sales: €44B-€45B (Est. €43.73B) 🟢
🔹 Gross Margin: ~56% (Est.… pic.twitter.com/kcG3HBjl1r— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) October 14, 2026
Some customers now want to place orders for 2029 and even 2030. That is a long runway for a machine maker.
Fouquet said planned supply for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet demand. ASML is also looking at ways to go beyond its planned 30% capacity increase in 2028.
The results came at a useful time for chip stocks. The PHLX Semiconductor Index fell for a fifth straight day on Tuesday and is down close to 5% in October.
Not everyone was cheering. Jefferies said the increase for 2027 and 2028 was broadly expected, and it sees sector multiples contracting further.
BofA analyst Didier Scemama sees room for price hikes. He estimates a 5% rise in average selling prices could lift earnings per share gains to around 10%.
China Rules Stay in Focus
ASML cannot export its most advanced tools to China. It expects China to make up about 20% of 2026 sales, though it made a similar forecast for 2025 and ended up near one third.
CFO Roger Dassen said the company opposes the proposed Match Act in Congress. He called it a bad idea and said it would speed up China’s own technology work.
The bill would bar DUV lithography sales to China and servicing of machines already installed there. China has made up roughly 70% of ASML’s DUV immersion unit sales by volume in recent years.
Scemama has a Buy rating and a $2,915 price target on the ADRs. They traded around $1,703 on Tuesday.
Third-quarter gross margin rose to 57.5% from 54%. Net income climbed from €2.92 billion in the prior quarter.
For the fourth quarter, ASML expects net sales of €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion. It expects a gross margin of around 57%.
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