TLDR
- Bitcoin rejected near its weekly close of $86,570 after Monday’s US trading open.
- US 30-year bond yields rose to 5.67%, close to 24-year highs.
- Bitget Wallet’s Lacie Zhang says BTC could reach $90,000–$93,000 if yields ease and inflation cools.
- October rate-hike odds fell to roughly 23% from 64% after a weak September jobs report.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in about $2.65 billion in September.
Bitcoin traded near $86,000 on Monday after posting its best weekly close in eight months. The price struggled to move past that level as US trading opened.
US bond yields rose again on the day. The 30-year yield climbed to 5.67%, just two basis points below last week’s 24-year high. The 10-year yield returned to 5.31%.
Trading firm QCP Capital said bond markets have not calmed down, even after a weaker US jobs report. It pointed to high oil prices and elevated long-term yields as reasons risk assets have struggled to push higher.
US stocks opened higher on Monday. The S&P 500 rose 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.7%, as traders bet the Federal Reserve will pause rate hikes at its Oct. 28 meeting.
Deutsche Bank analysts said this week’s FOMC meeting minutes, due Wednesday, will matter more than usual because of the bond sell-off. They said the minutes could show how officials view the current tightening cycle.
Analysts See a Path to $93,000
Bitget Wallet research lead Lacie Zhang said Bitcoin could reach $90,000 to $93,000 if Treasury yields ease and inflation data continues to support a weaker labor market. She said neither lower rate expectations nor ETF inflows are enough on their own to confirm a breakout.
Zhang pointed to $87,400 as the level buyers need to close above, on a daily or weekly basis, to confirm upward momentum. She named $84,000 and $82,000 as the nearest support levels if price falls instead.
Michaël van de Poppe, known on X as @CryptoMichNL, compared the current setup to the last market cycle. He said Bitcoin could touch $100,000 before entering a period of consolidation, and that 2027 could bring new all-time highs.
It's very comparable by what we've seen in the previous cycle for #Bitcoin.
Breakout upwards, after a massive bullish divergence has been created.
What's next?
I think that we'll touch $100,000 in the coming period and that would be the psychological resistance that we're… pic.twitter.com/yC9jLryaTS
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) October 5, 2026
October rate-hike odds fell to about 23%, down from 64% a week earlier. Zhang linked the shift to September payroll growth of just 29,000, well below the 90,000 economists expected.
August’s payroll gain was also revised down, to 133,000 from an initial 162,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2% from 4.1% over the same period.
ETF Inflows Continue But Resistance Holds
Zhang said US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in about $2.65 billion in September and roughly $134 million across October’s first two sessions. She called the inflows supportive but said they have not been enough to force Bitcoin through resistance.
Separately, Coin Bureau noted on X that Bitcoin long-term holders stayed in profit through the entire cycle, according to Glassnode data. The account said this has not happened in any bear market since at least 2015, and that the holder profit ratio is now climbing again.
You can't make this up.
Bitcoin has done something it hasn't done in any bear market since at least 2015.
Long-term holders stayed in PROFIT through the entire cycle, per Glassnode.
In every previous bear market since 2015, the average long-term holder ended up underwater at… pic.twitter.com/yhskbXoNDb
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) October 5, 2026
Glassnode’s Weekly Market Pulse flagged a drop in buyer dominance compared to mid-September, when BTC/USD first returned to $87,000 in eight months. It said this reflects a “moderation in aggressive upward momentum” rather than a trend reversal.
Zhang said stronger inflation data, renewed oil-driven price pressure, or hawkish Fed comments could restore October rate-hike expectations. She said any of those could push Bitcoin back toward $84,000.
The Fed raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on Sep. 16, with all 12 voting members in support. Its September projections placed the median year-end rate at 4.1%, up from 3.8% in June.
