TLDR
- Bernstein maintained its Outperform rating and $140 price target on Circle, implying ~59% upside from its $87.98 close
- USDC supply grew by $1.7 billion last week after nearly six months of flat growth
- Bernstein says Circle’s growth cycle does not depend on the CLARITY Act passing in September
- Adjusted stablecoin transaction volume is running at a $17 trillion annualized rate through July 2026
- More than 900 paid services use Circle’s Agent Stack, with 99.3% of x402 agent payment volume settling in USDC
Bernstein has kept its Outperform rating and $140 price target on Circle Internet Group (CRCL), even as uncertainty remains around the CLARITY Act. The target implies about 59% upside from Circle’s recent close of $87.98. At the time of writing, CRCL was trading at $89.20, up around 1.4%.
The note, published Aug. 24 and led by analyst Gautam Chhugani, makes the case that Circle’s growth does not hinge on Congress passing the U.S. crypto market structure bill in September.
Circle posted second-quarter revenue of $701 million, up 7% year over year, though slightly below analyst forecasts. Net income came in at $48 million, with EPS of $0.18, which beat expectations.
USDC Supply Picks Up After Months of Flatness
After nearly six months of sideways movement, USDC supply jumped by roughly $1.7 billion in a single week. Bernstein sees this as a sign that adoption is moving again.
The firm estimates USDC handles about 80% of decentralized exchange trading and finance volumes. Adjusted stablecoin transaction volume, which strips out bots and high-frequency activity, hit around $11 trillion in 2025 and was running at a $17 trillion annualized pace through July 2026. That is up around 60% from a year earlier.
Circle received approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in July to establish Circle National Trust, a federally supervised national trust bank. The move could eventually bring USDC reserve management under a federally regulated structure.
Standard Chartered added direct USDC minting and redemption for institutional clients. A separate integration with Fireblocks allows institutions to manage USDC balances and route payments into local fiat through Circle’s Payments Network, which reached $14.7 billion in annualized transaction volume at the end of Q2.
Agent Payments Give USDC Another Growth Lane
Bernstein also flagged machine-to-machine payments as a growing part of the USDC story. Circle launched Agent Stack in May, giving software agents the tools to hold assets and make programmable payments.
By Q2, more than 900 paid services were using Agent Stack, with 99.3% of x402 agent payment volume settling in USDC. A separate Keyrock report found AI agents settled $73 million across 176 million transactions over 12 months, with USDC handling 98.6% of those payments.
On regulation, Bernstein said a failed CLARITY Act vote on Sept. 15 would likely push the SEC and CFTC to step in with guidance rather than stall progress for Circle.
On competition, Mizuho cut Circle to Underperform in July with a $50 target, citing margin pressure from Open USD’s consortium model. Circle President Heath Tarbert pushed back, pointing to USDC’s liquidity and existing integrations.
Circle continues to add partners. Its deal with Japan’s JCB covers potential USDC use in corporate treasury and merchant payments. Partnerships with Kakao and Toss are exploring stablecoin use in South Korea. USDC also joined BNY’s Digital Asset Custody platform in June.
Bernstein’s previous Circle target was $190.
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