TLDR
- CoreWeave (CRWV) stock closed up 6% at $69.69 on Thursday after Wednesday’s 15.5% drop.
- Its five-year credit default swap spread hit about 1,038 basis points, above the 1,000 level seen as distress.
- The 2031 bond yield reached 15.78%, and put option volume hit a record high on Wednesday.
- CEO Mike Intrator says the $100 billion backlog covers all debt obligations.
- Deutsche Bank called the sell-off a buying opportunity, while Gartner warned 80% of neoclouds could shut down by 2030.
CoreWeave (CRWV) stock closed up 6% at $69.69 on Thursday. That followed a 15.5% drop on Wednesday. Trading was choppy, with the stock sliding as much as 8.3% to its lowest level since May 2025 before it recovered.
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock, CRWV
The rebound came as credit markets kept flashing warning signs. The yield on its 9.75% bond due 2031 reached 15.78%. A yield that high usually points to distress.
The cost to insure CoreWeave’s debt rose as well. The spread on its five-year credit default swaps topped 1,140 basis points at one point. It last stood near 1,038, up 16% in a week and 164% from a year ago.
A level of 1,000 basis points or more is generally a sign of credit distress, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Reuters reported the pricing implies a nearly 63% chance of default over five years, up from about 30% a year ago. Bond prices have slid too, with the April-issued notes at 79.15 cents on the dollar.
Options traders piled in. Put option volume hit a record high on Wednesday, according to Susquehanna. Investors bought contracts that profit if the stock falls below $42.50, $50 and $60.
Debt load and backlog
CoreWeave has taken on more than $51 billion in debt and obligations to fund its AI build-out. It raised its capital spending forecast by $4 billion to as much as $39 billion in August. Analysts expect about $13 billion in revenue this year and a loss of $2.13 billion.
CEO Mike Intrator told staff in a memo that the market sometimes “misunderstands and acts irrationally.” He said the backlog more than supports all debt obligations. Deutsche Bank put the backlog at over $100 billion, with about two-thirds tied to investment-grade customers such as Microsoft, Meta, IBM and Caterpillar.
Deutsche Bank kept its buy rating and called the drop a buying opportunity. Nvidia, which owns about 10% of CoreWeave, has also agreed to buy any unsold capacity through April 13, 2032. CEO Jensen Huang said the company’s financial strength is improving and its cost of capital is falling.
Not everyone is calm. Evercore ISI’s trading desk said the market is saying “no mas” to AI debt without operating cash flow support. S&P’s Gavan Nolan noted that demand is not in question, but the cash flow still has to arrive.
Wider AI sell-off
The stress spread to other names. Nebius closed up 1.29%, while Iren ended down less than 1%. Micron rose 1.87% and AMD fell 1.5%.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has dropped 11.6% over six sessions, erasing more than $1.6 trillion in value. The Nasdaq 100 is down more than 3% in that span. Oracle’s five-year CDS spread also rose to 282 basis points, up about 10% in a week.
Gartner said Thursday that about 80% of neoclouds could shut down by 2030. It also warned more than $3.5 trillion of AI spending could face impairment. Co-founder Brannin McBee told the Financial Times that CoreWeave is seeking an investment-grade rating.
After hours Thursday, CoreWeave stock was down 4% to $66.79.
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