TLDR
- Elon Musk hinted at a possible Tesla and SpaceX merger during an appearance on the All-In Podcast
- Musk said “imagine what action one might take” when asked why the two companies remain separate
- Prediction market Kalshi puts the odds of a merger before 2028 at 66%
- A merger could earn Musk an estimated $824 billion payday based on his compensation terms
- Markets barely reacted, with Tesla down 0.1% and SpaceX up 0.4% in premarket trading
Elon Musk appeared on the All-In Podcast on Monday with SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell. When asked why Tesla and SpaceX remain two separate companies, Musk replied: “Great question. With all this collaboration on so many levels, imagine what action one might take.”
Elon Musk today when asked why Tesla and SpaceX are still two separate companies:
"Great question there. With all this collaboration, on so many levels, who can imagine what action one might take when there's so much close collaboration in so many areas.”
Merger 😏
(via… pic.twitter.com/i2rXqJlXgw
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) September 15, 2026
The comments have added fresh fuel to merger speculation that has been building for months.
Growing Collaboration Between the Two Companies
Tesla and SpaceX are already working closely together. Musk discussed a jointly built chipmaking plant called Terafab during the podcast. The two companies also share research and development at Tesla’s manufacturing campus in Austin, Texas.
SpaceX runs its Grok AI models at its own data centers. Tesla uses AI to train its self-driving cars. Analysts have pointed to these overlapping areas as reasons a merger makes business sense.
Wall Street analysts at Baird and RBC have both said they believe a merger will happen. JPMorgan has also weighed in, saying SpaceX’s IPO gave Musk the acquisition currency needed to make a deal more feasible.
What a Merger Could Mean
Prediction market platform Kalshi currently puts the odds of a merger before 2028 at 66%. There is a 47% chance the companies merge before May next year, according to bettors on the platform.
A merger would give Musk control of a chain that runs from AI chips to computing to self-driving hardware and manufacturing. That is the main business case analysts have made for the deal.
On the financial side, Musk could receive an $824 billion payday. His Tesla CEO compensation package, approved by investors in November 2025, ties his payout to market capitalization in the event of a merger or acquisition.
Investor Ross Gerber of Gerber Kawasaki said the combined company would become a “must-have” for global investors. However, he also said a merger would not be a great deal for Tesla shareholders and would be dilutive for SpaceX investors.
Neither Tesla nor SpaceX responded to requests for comment on a potential merger.
Markets did not react sharply to Musk’s comments. SpaceX shares were up 0.4% in premarket trading Tuesday at $148.74. Tesla was down 0.1% at $358.67. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures were also lower, down 0.3% and 0.4% respectively.
Musk’s tone on the podcast was described as playful. He has faced this question before, and analysts say speculation has been building for months.
No timeline or deal terms have been announced by either company.
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