TLDR
- FICO stock fell 7% after hours Thursday on a Bloomberg report about a possible FHFA rule change.
- The FHFA may require lenders to use only two credit bureaus instead of three for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans.
- TransUnion (TRU) stock dropped 6% on the same report.
- The news adds to a brutal September, when FICO stock fell nearly 49%.
- Bank of America downgraded FICO stock this week, citing pricing power concerns.
Fair Isaac (FICO) stock fell 7% after hours Thursday. TransUnion (TRU) stock dropped 6% in the same session.
The declines followed a Bloomberg report on a possible rule change. The Federal Housing Finance Agency may require lenders to pull credit data from two bureaus instead of three.
The change would apply to loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Lenders currently use a “tri-merge” report pulling data from all three major bureaus.
FHFA Director Bill Pulte could announce the move as soon as Oct. 12. He is scheduled to speak at a mortgage industry conference in Chicago that day.
FHFA did not respond to a request for comment on the report. The agency has not confirmed a timeline publicly.
A Brutal September
The after-hours drop adds to a rough stretch for FICO stock. The stock fell nearly 49% in September alone.
A single day accounted for much of that drop. FICO stock fell 27% on Sept. 29 after FHFA named VantageScore an accepted score for mortgage pricing.
That move let lenders use VantageScore more broadly on loans sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It ended FICO’s long run as the default scoring model in that market.
Equifax, Experian and TransUnion dominate the credit reporting industry. The three bureaus jointly own VantageScore, FICO’s biggest rival.
Pulte has pushed for lower credit reporting costs for months. On Sept. 3 he said FHFA was “seriously considering” the two-bureau system.
A move to bi-merge would hit two business lines at once. FICO would face more competition from VantageScore, and the bureaus would sell fewer three-bureau reports.
Wall Street Reaction
Bank of America downgraded FICO stock this week. The bank pointed to concerns over FICO’s pricing power in the mortgage market.
Rocket Mortgage has also picked VantageScore as its preferred model. That decision adds to worries that large lenders are moving away from FICO scores.
FICO still earns steady revenue from its broader decisioning software platforms. Those subscription-based tools serve industries well beyond mortgages.
The company carries a heavy debt load, according to analysts tracking the stock. That debt could limit its flexibility if the mortgage scoring shake-up spreads further.
FICO stock is down almost 65% so far this year. Average daily trading volume sits near 453,000.
Current market cap stands at about $13.34 billion. Technical sentiment on the stock is rated a sell.
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