TLDR
- Gold climbed above $4,650 an ounce, its highest level in three months
- The U.S. Treasury’s surprise bond buyback program pushed yields and the dollar lower
- U.S. government debt crossed $40 trillion for the first time
- Gold-backed ETFs saw their largest single-day inflow since September 2025
- Ray Dalio recommended investors put up to 15% of their portfolios in gold
Gold is trading near a three-month high after a surprise move by the U.S. Treasury revived fears about the long-term strength of the dollar and America’s fiscal health.
The metal climbed above $4,650 an ounce on Monday, extending a rally that has now seen gold gain more than 5% over the past week alone. That marks three straight weeks of gains.
The trigger was the Treasury’s decision to ramp up buybacks of long-dated government debt. The move pushed bond yields lower and weakened the dollar, making gold more attractive to investors.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled the program could expand further. He also said the administration plans to announce a new fiscal initiative to address high government borrowing costs.
Dollar Weakness Fuels the Rally
When the dollar falls, assets priced in dollars like gold become cheaper for foreign buyers, which tends to increase demand. That dynamic is playing out now.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped to its lowest level in more than three months last week. The dollar has since stabilized slightly but remains under pressure.
U.S. government debt has crossed $40 trillion for the first time, a milestone that has added to investor concerns about America’s fiscal path.
ANZ analysts said gold’s move above $4,500 was supported by expectations that the Treasury will keep trying to control longer-term yields. They noted that pressure on the dollar has pushed more investors toward bullion.
The concern among some market watchers is not just about lower yields. The Treasury’s intervention has raised questions about how much policymakers are willing to manage the bond market directly.
Investor Demand Broadens
Gold-backed ETFs recorded their largest single-day inflow since September 2025. Net inflows have now continued for five straight weeks, according to ANZ analysts.
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio added to the bullish tone. In a LinkedIn post on Friday, he said investors should cut their bond holdings and put as much as 15% of their money in gold to hedge against a potential U.S. debt crisis.
Gold has also cleared a key technical level. It moved above its 200-day moving average around $4,513, which traders watch as a sign of a stronger longer-term trend. The next major target is around $4,700.
Silver edged up 0.2% to $69.15 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.6%. Palladium edged lower.
Central banks have continued buying gold, and the World Gold Council has pointed to ongoing central-bank demand as a key support factor alongside geopolitical and inflation risks.
The gold price stood at $4,634 an ounce at the time of writing, up 0.66% on the day.
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