TLDR
- Bank of America double-upgraded Intel from Underperform to Buy, lifting the stock ~5% in premarket trading
- BofA raised its price target to $135 from $96, citing stronger earnings potential through 2030
- The bank sees Intel’s server CPU sales hitting over $40 billion by 2030, targeting ~25% of a $170B market
- BofA flagged Intel’s low institutional ownership — held by just 16% of S&P 500 funds — as a potential upside catalyst
- Key risks include ARM-based competition, slower AI capex, and manufacturing execution challenges
Intel (INTC) stock jumped roughly 5% in premarket trading on June 11, 2026, after Bank of America issued a double-upgrade — moving the stock from Underperform all the way to Buy — and lifted its price target from $96 to $135.
That’s a big swing from a bank that was previously bearish on the name.
The upgrade was driven by growing analyst confidence in two areas: Intel’s server CPU business and its external foundry operations. BofA now believes Intel can deliver earnings power of more than $6 per share by 2030, up from a previous estimate of $3 to $4.
The bank applied a 25x multiple to its 2030 EPS power estimate of $6.24, discounted back two years, to land at the $135 target. Analysts said their prior sum-of-parts methodology based on 2028 estimates was leaving too much on the table.
Server CPU and the AI Angle
On the product side, BofA expects Intel’s server CPU revenue to exceed $40 billion by 2030. That would represent about 25% of what the bank sizes as a $170 billion total addressable market.
The analysts tied this directly to AI. As AI workloads shift toward agentic systems — where models act autonomously rather than just respond to prompts — the CPU’s role expands beyond traditional server management. BofA values that agentic AI opportunity at around $70 billion by 2030.
That’s a meaningful reframe of Intel’s position in the AI stack.
Foundry Business Getting Closer Attention
On the foundry side, BofA identified several potential deals in Intel’s pipeline. These include Apple M-Series wafers, MediaTek TPU wafers, Terafab IP and packaging work, and ARM-based server CPU opportunities.
The bank also pointed to a recent IP collaboration between Intel and Cadence on Intel’s 14A node. That partnership is seen as helping build a more durable external foundry ecosystem.
One factor that stood out in the BofA note: Intel’s institutional ownership is unusually low. Despite a market cap of around $540 billion — making it the fifth largest among U.S. semiconductor and AI infrastructure stocks — Intel is owned by just 16% of S&P 500 funds.
That makes it the second least-owned stock in the group, after SanDisk.
BofA drew a comparison to AMD, where institutional ownership rose 1,400 basis points over the past year alongside a 309% gain in the stock price. The implication: there’s room for Intel ownership to grow, and that could support the stock.
The bank did flag risks. ARM-based and custom chip competition remains a real threat. There’s also potential for AI capital spending to slow, and Intel still has to execute on its leading-edge manufacturing ramp — something it has stumbled on before.
Insiders haven’t been buying. Over the past three months, insiders sold $6.5 million worth of stock with no purchases recorded.
The stock was trading around $112.90 as of the morning session, up from a prior close near $107.
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